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Earlier this week we said the first ripples of a fourth wave had appeared.

We are all genuinely drained from in excess of 18 months of living with this virus in our midst, but the show goes on.

Stats released last night by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) show that Gauteng is emerging as a hotspot.

Over the 24 hours prior to last night’s announcement the province recorded 1 018 new confirmed COVID-19 cases.

The figure for the previous 24 hours was 605 so it’s a marked increase. Just last week, we were looking at 566 new cases across the entire country.

In total across the country, reports TimesLIVE, there were 1 275 new cases recorded yesterday:

The positivity rate — the number of new infections against the number of tests done in the same period — is also on the rise.

“The proportion of positive new cases v total new tests is 3.6%, which is higher than the day before (2.1%). The seven-day average is 2.7% today [Wednesday], which is higher than yesterday (2.4%),” the NICD said.

This graphic from Health24 shows the increase in the seven-day moving average in new COVID-19 cases in Gauteng:

As we have covered previously, a cluster of infections among the 20-44 age group at an institute of higher education in Tshwane has been identified.

These clusters aren’t entirely unexpected and trends are being monitored to see if this represents the start of the fourth wave:

For the past several weeks, scientists have warned that South Africa is expected to experience a fourth wave of cases. However, the timing of this resurgence is less clear.

Spokesperson for the national Department of Health, Foster Mohale, told Health24:

“Nobody knows when we will officially be in the fourth wave. Gauteng is already showing signs of increased cases so this may be the start.”

The fourth wave is predicted to be less severe than its predecessors thanks to increased vaccine and natural immunity levels.

However, there is still a risk of hospitals being overwhelmed:

“The available capacity to manage an increase in Covid admissions is different to what it was in the second and third waves. That means that even a lower peak than what we had observed in previous waves might be sufficient to breach capacity,” [statistical scientist Dr Sheetal] Silal said.

The [South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium] team urged hospital managers to assess these projections and plan ahead to ensure sufficient hospital bed capacity during the next wave.

The biggest issue is likely to be the vaccination rate among those aged 60 and above.

Professor Shabir Madhi, Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences and Professor of Vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits), also encouraged those aged 18-34 to get vaccinated so that they don’t become “vectors of transmission of the virus”.

Earlier this week, the Department of Health reported that 41% of adults in South Africa have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, with 35% of adults fully vaccinated.

[sources:timeslive&health24]