[imagesource: Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images]

Day 537 of living under some form of lockdown here in South Africa.

Pretty tiring, isn’t it?

Just be grateful you’re not one of the doctors battling to save lives inside a high care unit, while begging South Africans to get vaccinated so that you may be spared another day of harrowing trauma.

Perhaps take a moment to think about what they’re sacrificing every day before you forward on that unverified article because you think it’s ‘interesting’.

Our third wave is slowly subsiding, which means a drop to alert level 2, announced by President Ramaphosa on Sunday.

It would be nice to enjoy a reprieve from thinking about a fourth wave just yet, but experts have warned the threat is very real.

The University of KwaZulu-Natal’s professor Mosa Moshabela has stated that the upcoming election (November 1) could lead to a surge in cases.

In addition, reports BusinessTech, a team of medical experts at Wits University has been mapping out various scenarios.

They say it’s tough to pin down when the fourth wave will arrive:

“We are guessing any time from October/November, because it seems to be following a cyclical pattern in many places, every six months, here and elsewhere. But the surges in different places, even between South African provinces, vary widely, with the peaks differing by two to three months, as well as in severity…

“So, wait and see and be prepared. In highly vaccinated countries, almost all the deaths are in unvaccinated people, which is why South Africa should single-mindedly focus on this.”

If another variant emerges which proves to be as transmissible as the Delta variant, expect a far greater surge in case numbers.

The team of experts says it’s likely that we will see a noticeable wave before the virus continues to circulate indefinitely in a series of smaller waves.

The end game is simple:

The specialists said that in summary, it’s a race: you get the virus or you get the vaccine.

“If you gamble on the virus, as some anti-vaxxers will, you put yourself and others at risk of all the Covid-19 consequences, and if lucky, will survive and be immune.

“You will also put others at risk, even if your own infection remains without symptoms or runs a mild course. If you get the vaccine, you fast-track your immunity at a far lower risk of illness.”

It remains a choice not to get the vaccine.

You will have to live with the consequences of that choice, though, like being denied entrance to sporting events and other live shows, and restrictions being placed on your international travel.

Answering questions from The Conversation, Michelle Groome, Harry Moultrie, and Adrian Puren, all at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), also cast an eye forward to what we can expect next:

Differential vaccine coverage at a provincial, district, sub-district and ward level is also going to have an impact on the epidemiological patterns in the months to come. Communities with high vaccine coverage rates are likely to see lower case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths related to COVID-19 compared to those with poor vaccine coverage.

Even with slightly lower efficacy of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines currently in use against the pervading variants of concern, there will be a dramatic reduction in severe COVID-19 disease as a result of the national vaccine rollout…

Moving forward, how we interpret the daily case numbers and deaths will change. Waves will likely be less distinct as a result of drivers acting on multiple timescales.

In that sense, the ‘fourth wave’ could be our final wave.

The NICD says that we will need to “accept that surges will occur, new variants will appear and booster shots will be needed”.

Much like how people get a flu jab each year, so too may we need booster shots to protect against COVID-19.

In essence, we should get used to living with this virus for some time to come, and take the necessary steps to mitigate the risks it brings.

[sources:bustech&conversation]