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On June 27, President Ramaphosa announced that South Africa was returning to adjusted alert level 4 lockdown restrictions for 14 days.

That kicked off the next day, and is due to run until the end of Sunday, July 11.

If you’ve been rationing your booze, and hoping to make it through the weekend before stocking up on Monday, you may want to rework your calculations.

It appears likely that we will see the restrictions extended beyond the 14 days, as COVID-19 numbers continue to place huge strain on medical resources across the country.

Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at the bureau for economic research at Stellenbosch University, spoke with MyBroadband:

Pienaar said that when President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the move to level four on 27 June 2021, the seven-day rolling average of new daily coronavirus cases was around 15,000.

“Yesterday, the seven-day rolling average was 19,100 and health experts tell us we are yet to reach the peak,” he said.

“Irrespective of the dire impact on the hospitality, liquor, and aviation sectors, the state of the pandemic will make it very hard to relax the regulations by Sunday.”

There’s also the fact that the COVID-19 Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme (Ters) has been extended, meaning employees who work in industries affected by lockdown measures should receive at least part of their salaries.

Pienaar did say that he can only speculate, but one look at the seven-day rolling average shows the extent of what we’re up against:

Image: MyBroadband

Economists at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) agree with Pienaar, issuing a research note yesterday that pointed to the likelihood of an extension.

This from BusinessTech:

“Unfortunately, given the progression of the third wave since the measures were announced, we think it is likely that most, if not all, of the current restrictions will be extended,” the BER said.

“This will then start to have a more meaningful adverse impact on the Q3 2021 GDP performance.”

In parts of the country, the actual COVID-19 death toll is likely far higher than what is being reported.

For example, Gauteng had 1 486 excess deaths in the week of June 13, which is around six times more than the government’s official statistics of 244 COVID-19-related deaths over the same period.

On a really grim note, consider that undertakers in the Western Cape are being urged to stock up on coffins.

The Western Cape health department has confirmed that the province is in the midst of an “established third wave” of infections.

Premier Alan Winde said last week that initial analysis carried out by the province’s public health experts suggested that the province’s third wave could be worse than the second wave.

All things considered, it seems highly unlikely that we’ll be seeing adjusted alert level 4 restrictions lifted at the end of the proposed 14-day timeframe.

Keep an eye out for another 8PM address, if you can stomach it.

[sources:mybb&bustech]