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On Sunday night, President Ramaphosa announced a return to adjusted alert level 2, which included limits on the size of gatherings, as well as a change in curfew.

The tightening of measures comes as a result of a COVID-19 third wave, which appears to be well underway in certain provinces.

According to experts analysing KwaZulu-Natal’s wastewater, the province is already experiencing its third wave of infections, and there are also serious concerns coming out of Gauteng.

Professor Francois Venter, head of the research group Ezintsha at the University of the Witwatersrand, fears the worst, having spoken to The Daily Maverick earlier this week:

The figures suggest that Gauteng is “firmly” in the third wave, said Venter, adding that in Gauteng there are reports of ICUs starting to fill up.

“All the data point to a very severe third wave occurring in Gauteng,” he said.

Glenda Gray, president and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council, also voiced her concerns regarding Gauteng, adding that the Free State and Northern Cape are also a worry.

Gray said it was most likely that transmission during the third wave would occur in pockets of South Africa that weren’t affected by the first or second waves.

“It is unfortunate that we are going into a third wave, and also going into winter,” she said, because winter will usher in behaviour changes that will further transmissions, such as people spending more time indoors.

Whilst Venter and Gray are clearly fearful, chairperson of the Ministerial Advisory Council (MAC) on Vaccines and National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) director, Professor Barry Schoub, struck a slightly more optimistic tone.

Speaking to News24, after being asked whether the third wave would be worse than the second wave, he had this to say:

[He] said it was still unclear whether the third wave of infections would be worse than the previous waves.

“The one thing we can be optimistic, that it won’t be worse, is the residual immunity the population has, that might lessen the severity of a third wave,” Schoub told News24.

“The second thing to be positive about is that there hasn’t really been a new variant that drove infections, such as the second wave of infections. The B.1.617.2 variant, that originated in India, hasn’t really materialised into a significant threat in South Africa.”

News24 also asked Professor Alex Welte, from the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis at Stellenbosch University, for his take.

He said he was surprised by statements that the third wave would be worse than those that came before, but added that “cluster outbreaks” in certain areas was still a cause for concern.

“There might still be waves, but it will not be as severe as before and place as much pressure on healthcare systems. But this situation might change quickly if there’s a new variant that might bring us back to a place, such as the start of the pandemic.”

Ultimately, Welte said the severity of the third wave will depend largely on our behaviour, and failure to follow precautionary measures could result in a “massive wave”.

I’d say our track record warrants caution on that front, and the South African Medical Association (SAMA) clearly agrees, expressing concern that the latest restrictions are too lax.

Again, from News24:

“We also welcome the restriction on the number of people at events: 100 people indoors and 250 outdoors. Although this is a move in the right direction, it’s not enough, and stricter measures need to be in place, especially for indoor gatherings with poor ventilation,” SAMA chairperson Dr Angelique Coetzee said…

“We cannot be fooled into a false sense of security around Covid-19. It is still out there, and still a threat to many people. We simply have to ensure we do everything we can to curb the spread of the disease, and we have to understand that each and every person has a role to play,” Coetzee said.

As tired as we are of living under this COVID-19 cloud, irresponsible behaviour will only further slow a return to any form of normality.

The utterly pedestrian speed of our vaccine rollout really isn’t helping, but all we can control on a day to day basis is our individual behaviour.

[sources:dailymav&news24&news24]