[imagesource: LBJ Library photo by Jay Godwin; BIGSTOCK/bodhichita; Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead]

As the votes come in from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (and two other states that aren’t as close), it seems unlikely that neither candidate will reach 270.

You can follow the latest official vote tallies in the key battleground states here. It really is down to razor-thin margins.

For interest’s sake, let’s consider what would happen if neither presidential candidate reached 270 electoral votes. Remember, there are 538 up for grabs, which means candidates can tie it up at 269 each.

This hasn’t happened since 1824, and there are (reasonably) clear measures in place should it occur.

Results then hinge on what happens when the electoral college meets to cast its votes on December 14, and how many elected members each party has when the dust settles on the results currently being finalised.

Here’s 270 to Win:

If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win.

State House delegations can cast their vote for president from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes, while Senators are limited to the top two candidates in their vote for Vice-President.

OK, great.

What does that actually mean, and who would it favour? Until we know the make-up of both the House and the Senate for certain, it’s tough to say.

This, from Quartz, is another way to explain it:

In the House vote, members don’t vote as individuals, but as a unit, with one vote for each state delegation. Currently, the overall House majority is Democratic. But in 27 states a majority of delegates are Republican (and in Pennsylvania the delegates are evenly split).

Whether an electoral college tie favors Donald Trump or Joe Biden will depend on whether many seats are flipped by the final vote count, and where.

You’re not the only one who’s gone cross-eyed, don’t worry.

There is the chance that you could end up with a president from one party, and a vice-president from another.

Essentially, if neither candidate hits the magical 270 mark, a whole range of variables come into play.

Finally, there is this, via Metro:

The 20th Amendment of 1933 specifies that the four-year terms of both the president and vice president will end at noon on January 20 following an election year.

The Congressional Research Service stated in a report in March 2020 that: ‘There are no provisions of law permitting a president to stay in office after this date, even in the event of a national emergency, short of the ratification of a new constitutional amendment.’

This means that Donald Trump would not be allowed to remain as president past this date, without major amendments to the constitution being made.

If the courts and college cannot select a new president by January 20, 2021, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives – currently Democrat Nancy Pelosi – would become acting president.

Nobody wants that.

As much as 2020 has been a dumpster fire of a year, it really does look unlikely that this will be the case.

Unless legal battles in the coming days and weeks manage to strike votes from the official tally, this race has a very clear favourite.

Follow the updated vote counts in real-time here.

[sources:270towin&quartz&metro]