[imagesource: AFP/Denis Charlet]

With South Africa’s confirmed coronavirus cases number now surpassing the 324 000 mark, the scale of the problem we face is clear.

At the same time, those covering these numbers should also point out that there have been 165 591 recoveries, along with 4 669 deaths, so there are actually 153 961 confirmed active cases at present.

Yesterday, there were 145 903, so it has still been a bad 24 hours in that respect.

With our testing backlog and, let’s be honest, government incompetence, we also know we’re not getting the full picture with regards to the spread of the virus, which is why the ‘excess deaths’ number is so important.

Using data between May 6 and July 7, the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) says that excess deaths during the pandemic have reached 10 994.

More from TimesLIVE:

The estimated excess deaths from natural causes between May 6 and July 7 is two-and-a-half times the official Covid-19 death toll of 4,453 [between those same dates].

The Medical Research Council (MRC) team of Debbie Bradshaw, Ria Laubscher, Rob Dorrington, Pam Groenewald and Tom Moultrie said two-thirds of the excess deaths (7,305) were in people older than 60.

Their findings supported other evidence indicating that the pandemic’s acceleration in the Western Cape is losing momentum.

In the Western Cape, the rate of increase in natural deaths in Cape Town appears to have slowed, but that is not the case for the country as a whole.

“There is a particularly sharp increase in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape,” said the MRC team. “Compared with the predicted number of natural deaths from historical data in the week ending July 3, the Eastern Cape had 90% more, Gauteng had 71% more, and the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal had 17% more.”

This graph shows how excess deaths are continuing to exceed predictions:

For a bit of good news, it’s worth noting that deaths from unnatural causes, which includes causes such as road accidents and murders, were 28% below the predicted number for the week ending July 7:

I guess a national lockdown will have that effect.

South Africa also has a far lower mortality rate per 100 000 residents than most countries around the world, although the exact reasons for that aren’t yet clear.

As for the economic fallout that lies ahead – well, it’s nothing short of harrowing.