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At present, there are three South African provinces with very worrying COVID-19 numbers

The fact that the Western Cape is under siege is well known, and healthcare workers on the front lines speak of physical, mental, and emotional fatigue.

Whilst the virus seems to have ‘seeded’ earlier in the Western Cape than other provinces, likely due to so-called ‘super spreader’ events and an increased number of tourists, both the Eastern Cape and Gauteng have been seeing rapidly surging numbers in recent weeks.

In fact, using data correct as of June 26 (Friday), Gauteng, is now recording more COVID-19 cases every day than at any point during the Western Cape’s outbreak.

News24 reports:

On 26 June, Gauteng recorded 2 598 new cases and 2 590 on 25 June – both representing the highest increases in cases in a single day in any province.

In comparison, the Western Cape’s highest rise in cases in a single day was reported on 4 June, with 2 349 cases.

Using data for the month spanning May 27 through to June 26, News24 compiled this graph, showing the rolling seven-day average case increase:

As you can see, the red line, representing Gauteng, is headed upwards at an alarming rate.

The latest numbers, correct as of last night, show South Africa has 138 134 confirmed cases, 2 456 deaths, and 68 925 recoveries.

It took 95 days for the country to reach 50 000 cases, and only another 14 to hit 100 000.

That milestone was reached on June 23. If you consider that over the past two days there have been in excess of 13 000 new confirmed cases, you would expect the 150 000 mark to be broken by Wednesday.

Whilst the Western Cape still leads in confirmed cases (59 315, to Gauteng’s 34 285 and the Eastern Cape’s 23 658), it also has by far the highest number of recoveries.

When you look at the active cases, again plotted out by News24, the extent of Gauteng’s problem becomes clearer:

Damn.

We should point this out, though:

…the active cases calculation is fraught with pitfalls.

“The number of ‘active’ cases is calculated as the number of confirmed cases minus the number of those who have recovered (or number died, if known). This is an intermediate between prevalence and incidence,” Professor Nelesh Govender of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases previously explained.

Govender said using an ‘active cases’ metric had several limitations because of:

the time lag between diagnosis of a confirmed case and recovery;

incomplete follow-up of cases so that recoveries and deaths are not well documented; and

the inconsistent application of the definition of a recovery.

Even taking those limitations into consideration, Gauteng must brace itself for a continued spike in infections.

Using the latest modelling by the SA COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, Gauteng could hit 115 000 cases by mid-July.

The same model predicts the Western Cape will record 189 000 cases by that point, and the Eastern Cape 56 000.

You can see further graphics here.

What lessons can we take from this? Well, wear a mask and remain vigilant, obviously, but also that one should exercise caution when taking amusement from the plight of other provinces.

This thread covers that quite nicely:

Remember during Day Zero madness, and Gauteng twitter was sending this to Cape Town?https://t.co/Ycln3mOKcT

— Lester Kiewit (@lesterkk) June 28, 2020

Enough said.

[source:news24]