[Image: Gencraft / AI]
If that Netflix movie Don’t Look Up didn’t already feel real, then it should feel more real right now.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is slated to pass very close to Earth in December 2032—and might even strike the planet.
The internet has nicknamed it “the city destroyer” because of its size (approximately 40 to 100 metres wide, which is practically the size of a large building), speed, and the possibility of hitting us.
Scientists at NASA and around the world have been closely following a near-Earth asteroid, calculating two weeks ago that the space rock had a 1.3% chance of hitting the Earth — and now, that probability has risen substantially.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s still only a 2.1% chance of a Don’t Look Up scenario, or 1 in 48 odds, according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
The other sort of good news is that while the asteroid is big enough to cause catastrophic damage to a city, it’s not large enough to threaten the whole planet, like the one that took out the dinosaurs. (We vote for landing in America – shhh, who said that?)
The risk figure will be updated as scientists learn more about the asteroid’s path and although it’s far more likely the asteroid will miss Earth, sites that could be affected by a collision have already been identified.
Per WIRED, astronomers currently believe 2024 YR4 would create an airburst—or mid-air explosion—upon impact that would be equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
This explosion would affect roughly a 50-kilometre radius around the impact site. As for the location of the collision, some experts, such as David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, have sketched out a “risk corridor.”
According to the asteroid’s current path, and if the 2 percent probability becomes reality, the asteroid should fall somewhere in a band of territory stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa.
Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador would be at risk.
The other bad news is that if it doesn’t impact the Earth, there’s a minuscule chance of 0.3% or so that it could hit the Moon instead, according to University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin.
In a recent Bluesky post, Rankin speculated that if it were to bash into our closest celestial neighbor, “it should be visible to us if it happens, which would be neat.”
“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat,” he told New Scientist.
The scientists are keeping an eye on the space rock with the epic James Webb Space Telescope. Over the coming years, we can expect the probability of ‘the city destroyer’ impacting the Earth to ebb and flow.
Usually, the odds of near-Earth objects hitting us tend to diminish over time, as the New York Times reported last month.
Still, at a 2.1% chance, the space rock scores a three on the Torino Impact Hazard scale, which means it’s an “encounter, meriting attention by astronomers,” as well as the “public and by public officials,” according to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab.
You’ll be glad to know that in the event of a near disaster, NASA already has a successful asteroid redirection test under its belt.
