[imagesource:needpix]

Shocking new data from the University of Washington reveals that as many as 155 out of 204 countries may fall short of fertility rates required to sustain population growth by 2050.

By 2100, this figure could rise to include 97% of nations in the world.

Despite the overall findings of the study, ‘outlier countries’ with lower incomes and relatively high fertility rates might still experience population booms, making this a particular issue for the so-called first world.

Eastern and Western sub-Saharan Africa zones are specifically projected to face population spikes counteracting the global trend, putting the world on the brink of a “demographic divide”- where socio-economic elements will affect the course of the future for many countries.

A baby boom in these regions is expected with an estimated 77% of births occurring there by 2100, compared to 29% in 2021.

Senior author Professor Stein Emil Vollset from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said “We are facing staggering social change through the 21st century.”

“The world will be simultaneously tackling a ‘baby boom’ in some countries and a ‘baby bust’ in the others.”

While some countries may struggle with ageing populations and a shrinking workforce, others may face issues related to overpopulation and resource management.

“These future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.”

As the rest of the world wrestles with the serious challenges to economic growth posed by a shrinking workforce and how to care for and pay for ageing populations, many of Sub-Saharan Africa’s most resource-constrained countries will be grappling with how to support the world’s youngest, fastest-growing population in some of the most politically and economically unstable, heat-stressed, and health-care-strained places on earth.

The global fertility rate has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each female in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021—with over half of all countries and territories (110 of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per female as of 2021.

This trend is particularly worrying for places such as South Korea and Serbia where the rate is less than 1.1 child for each female.

But for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates remain high – nearly twice the global average, at four children per female in 2021. In Chad, the fertility rate of seven births is the highest in the world.

“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception, but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment.”

All these studies do however point out that the finding “requires nuanced interpretation” due to the uncertainty of births and problems with data in those regions, especially during the post-pandemic years.

As with everything in the world today, it may be a problem, or it may not. Nobody can say anything with certainty anymore.

[source:healthdata.org]