[imagesource:pexels]

What came first, the chicken or the egg? Unfortunately for South Africa, both are currently under threat.

Major retailers, including Spar, continue to report a shortage of eggs due to increasing avian flu outbreaks.

Dr. Abongile Balarane, the CEO of the South African Poultry Association, has described the situation as “catastrophic.”

The slew of outbreaks, specifically H5N1 and H7N6 flu strains, have hit poultry production hard. Approximately 15% of national production has been lost, resulting in the loss of over four million chickens. That’s a lot of KFC Streetwise combos.

One potential solution being discussed is chicken vaccination, a measure not yet implemented in South Africa. The poultry industry is actively engaged in talks with the government about introducing vaccines in an attempt to curb the spread of avian flu.

To manage the situation, some retailers like Woolworths have taken precautions, such as temporarily housing free-range laying hens indoors to protect their health.

While the egg supply has been severely affected, there is hope for recovery by October, according to Dr. Balarane. The impact on egg production is expected to ease, allowing farmers to restock their farms ahead of the festive season.

Unfortunately, it’s not just avian flu we need to worry about.

This whole situation has also raised concerns about the broader chicken-meat supply chain and the pricing of poultry-based protein products. At a time when food and consumer inflation rates in South Africa have been relatively stable, the cost of essential protein sources like eggs and chicken is on the rise.

The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group’s latest monthly Household Affordability Index revealed a 3% increase in the price of frozen chicken portions during August. While consumer inflation in South Africa recently reached a two-year low of 4.7% annually in July, certain food items, such as eggs, milk and cheese, have experienced significant price hikes, with a notable 14.4% increase in August.

Plus, SA already has to rely on chicken imports because domestic production cannot meet local demand. Trade policies, including tariffs and anti-dumping duties, have long been a point of contention between importers and local producers. The South African Reserve Bank has previously highlighted the inflationary impact of such policies, specifically noting their role in raising the prices of frozen chicken meat.

In August, the Department of Trade and Industry reimposed anti-dumping duties on frozen bone-in portions of chicken, impacting imports from Brazil and other countries.

Fred Hume, managing director of Hume International, one of South Africa’s largest importers of frozen food products, warned of a potential chicken shortage during the festive season due to multiple factors, including the avian flu outbreaks, trade policies and anti-dumping duties.

As much as I am loathe to say, it may well be necessary to look up a tofu roast recipe for Christmas lunch this year.

[source:dailymaverick]