[imagesource: Flickr / GovernmentZA]

Even if you don’t care one iota about politics in this country, and I envy you on that front, the events of the past 48 hours or so are worth a closer look.

According to the Section 89 independent panel report, President Cyril Ramaphosa has an impeachment case to answer over serious violations of the Constitution.

In light of this, it appeared for all money that Ramaphosa would resign yesterday before a late change of mind ahead of the special NEC meeting scheduled for this afternoon.

Ramaphosa has made clean governance and anti-corruption his rallying cries, his presidency has been deeply flawed, and there’s a strong case to be made that he should step down in light of the stance the ANC purports to take with regard to such matters.

However, do you know who is next in line to start feeding from the public coffer? It’s genuinely frightening.

[THREAD] 1. If the President resigns tonight it will open the door for the nastiest, most craven and unrepentant criminals in the ANC to start feasting again. Are you ready for “President David Mabuza”?

— Lindiwe Mazibuko (@LindiMazibuko) December 1, 2022

I’ll assume you understand the basics around the Phala Phala scandal and we can head straight into the latest Zapiro cartoon for The Daily Maverick:

Doomed if he does and doomed if he doesn’t.

It remains a big possibility that our president will resign. If that happens, Rebecca Davis lays out what happens next on The Daily Maverick.

Let’s say he tells the nation he’s resigning. What then?

Crucial to remember is the fact that Ramaphosa, like his predecessors, wears two hats at the same time: ANC president and South African president…

In this case, it is to be assumed that if Ramaphosa steps down, his deputy – David “DD” Mabuza – would ascend to the presidency of South Africa.

Would Mabuza become president automatically?

No. Once Ramaphosa has resigned, Parliament would have to reconvene. Then the ANC caucus would have to nominate Mabuza as State President in the National Assembly, and he would have to be voted in. Given the ANC majority in Parliament, that part should be smooth. Then Mabuza would have to be sworn in by Chief Justice Raymond Zondo.

However, when it comes to who becomes president of the ANC, that’s where things heat up:

There are two weeks to go till the ANC is due to elect a president at its elective conference at Nasrec: the polls that Ramaphosa would have likely smashed prior to the release of the Phala Phala report…

It is almost impossible to predict what would happen at the ANC elective conference in a situation where Ramaphosa does not contest, because anything could happen when nominations are thrown open to the floor.

Paul Mashatile, who is currently the Treasurer General and acting Secretary General of the ANC, may well be a frontrunner at the conference.

He’s Ramaphosa’s preferred candidate with a somewhat chequered past involving accusations of misappropriated funds and the like.

The real worry is someone like this, sniffing around the edges and smelling opportunity:

[NEW] Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma calling for President Ramaphosa to Step Aside.

#PhalaPhalaFarmGate #Sec89IndPanel pic.twitter.com/QGYj1kfleY

— Mr. Tshweu (@TshweuMoleme) December 1, 2022

Funny, that – I’ve never heard her utter a word about her ex-husband Jacob needing to face the consequences of his actions.

As we survey the wreckage, one thing remains clear. A certain Arthur Fraser has managed to checkmate the president.

This is the same Arthur Fraser who illegally granted Jacob Zuma medical parole and even Judge Sandile Ngcobo, who handed down the ruling which has led to Ramaphosa’s possible resignation, labelled the spy boss’ evidence as ‘hearsay’.

One more time from The Daily Maverick to put the cherry on top:

The master spymaster, Fraser, had done his work. He played a chess game and checkmated the President, who cooked his own goose. This is how spies work: create chaos and the conditions for self-implication.

Why Fraser did this has become clear as daylight.

The game clarified on Thursday as November turned to December. While Ramaphosa stood exposed by the panel’s report, the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction of the party took back the ANC from the reformists.

Consider some of the names that are now back in the mix for ANC power positions with Ramaphosa knocked off the perch.

Malusi Gigaba, Andile Lungisa, Bathabile Dlamini, David Mahlobo, Faith Muthambi, Nomvula Mokonyane – it’s a who’s who of state capture aiders and enablers.

You can read that full dissection here.

We were so close to having a nice, quiet December. Instead, the battle for the soul of the ANC has hit sixth gear.

[sources:dmav&dmav&dmav]