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Remember when you could pop up to Jozi for a weekend and then fly home for less than R2 000?

Those were the days.

When Comair, which operated domestic British Airways flights as well as low-cost carrier Kulula, went under in June, we knew we were in for a short-term rise in ticket prices.

Then came the continued surge in fuel prices and we were staring into the eye of a perfect storm, with warnings that domestic air travellers should be prepared to pay three to four times more for their flight tickets.

Comair was responsible for roughly 40% of domestic airline capacity.

We’re now looking at a reality where those short-term rises become somewhat set in stone. The Mail & Guardian has gone as far as to describe air travel as “a privilege of the well-heeled few”:

At the time of writing, tickets from Johannesburg to Cape Town, the most popular route, were sold out until Monday 10 October. A one-way ticket on FlySafair cost R3 284.

That is cheap by the standards of Airlink, which had no flights until Sunday and was charging R5 279 for a one-way flight.

In excess of R5 000 for a one-way flight is just madness. That in-person meeting that could have been an email or Zoom call needs to be just that.

A few years back, you could get a return flight to Portugal for roughly R6 000 but we’ll need to settle in and get used to this ‘new normal’.

Aviation analyst Desmond Latham told M&G that for the next 24 months, flights on short notice “would be premium travel”.

Kirby Gordon, chief marketing officer at FlySafair, said the challenge facing the aviation industry was that of demand.

…He noted that the past two weeks had been particularly bad because of the condensed October school holidays, which has concentrated demand over a short period.

Gordon warned the rise in fuel costs — from about 45% to 65% of total — meant that prices would not fall to their previous levels.

We can expect a price drop as other airlines increase capacity to meet demand, but that will be a gradual process.

If everything goes to plan, and fuel costs don’t further escalate, we may see a degree of normality come winter 2023.

Sorry, family and friends in Jozi – we won’t be popping up for a weekend on short notice any time soon.

[source:mg]