[imagesource: EPA / Konstantin Alysh / Defence Ministry]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has had his massive ego bruised during the course of his country’s invasion of Ukraine.

In early September, an incredible and remarkable counter-offensive saw Ukrainian troops take back control of Kharkiv through a combination of speed, aggression, and adept improvisation.

That was just one in a long line of incidents highlighting the failure of Russian troops to dominate in the way their leader expects them to. When a person like Putin is backed into a corner, they’ll do anything to save face and cling to power.

During a televised national address yesterday, Putin stated that hostilities in Ukraine now threaten the very existence of Russia and said talk of using nuclear weapons “is not a bluff”.

Nuclear analysts say the language he used illustrated a shift in his rhetoric from previous empty threats.

The president spoke of a “tactical” strike, reports The Telegraph:

Russia’s tactical arsenal is limited in range to around 300 miles – compared to a 3,000 mile strategic nuclear missile…

However, even tactical nuclear weapons wield immense destructive power. The atomic bomb dropped by the United States on Hiroshima had a yield of around 15kt.

Russian use of nuclear weapons in such a way would be unprecedented, so it is difficult to predict how such an attack might unfold. But analysts closely following Russian nuclear rhetoric have outlined a handful of scenarios.

A single nuclear bomb dropped on Washington would kill an estimated 300 000 people, a figure which excludes those who would die from nuclear radiation fallout in wider areas.

The fear from prominent world leaders is that Putin has lost his grip on reality in recent times, with reports suggesting he insists on having his nuclear briefcase at hand at all times.

This keeps him constantly connected to the country’s nuclear capabilities. Any order he issues travels directly to Russian General Staff, which is the country’s central military command.

This central command has two ways of starting a launch – they can either send codes to weapons commanders or use a back-up system that bypasses all chains of command to launch land-based nuclear weapons.

Whether those commanders would actually hit the so-called ‘red button’ is uncertain.

The failure of Russia’s troops in Ukraine has led to rumours circulating that Putin has powerful critics within his own country.

The rhetoric, especially on Russian state-owned and run news channels, has escalated in the past few weeks:

Russian state television host Olga Skabeeva said on air that Moscow should have nuked Britain on the day of Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral to cause maximum chaos.

Andrey Gurulyov, a member of the Russian Duma, approvingly responded that Britain could be turned into a “martian desert”.

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss said during her Tory leadership campaign that she would hit the ‘red button’ if necessary, while US President Joe Biden warned that a nuclear strike from Russia “would change the face of war unlike anything since World War Two”.

Analysts who spoke with The Washington Post said you could read Putin’s national address in two ways. The fact that he announced the mobilisation of 300 000 Russian reservists shows he’s committed to using conventional forces and may still view the nuclear option as a final resort.

However, it does signal that he’s preparing to knuckle down and win the war in Ukraine, possibly through the use of nasty means down the line:

…as Putin grows more desperate, he may reach for these other rungs on the escalation ladder, even if he continues to eschew nuclear use. For example, Putin could engage in much more aggressive attempts to decapitate the regime in Kyiv. Or he could significantly ratchet up attacks on civilian infrastructure, as recent Russian attacks on power and water infrastructure in the Kharkiv region suggest…

Of most concern, Putin could order conventional military attacks on the NATO supply lines into Ukraine.

This would bring him into direct conflict with NATO, a military alliance of 30 nations, further escalating things.

What is clear is that for the first time since the Cold War, a nuclear shadow hangs over Europe and the US.

The war in Ukraine will not end soon and if desperation strikes then Putin’s next move is anyone’s guess.

[sources:tele&washpost]