[imagesource: Alastair Grant / AP]

Call it an invasion if you like, but Russia is at war with Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin and his troops are accused of committing war crimes and the evidence stacking up is irrefutable.

This photojournalist can tell you from her firsthand experience, as can millions of Ukrainians and the Sky News team that was ambushed.

As horrific as the past 12 or so days have been, it’s clear that things aren’t going exactly to plan for Russian troops. Helicopters are being shot down, tanks are being towed away, and radio messages have been intercepted showing troops in “complete disarray”.

We know Putin isn’t likely to back down, no matter the human cost, but the Kremlin has stated that it is ready to halt its onslaught “in a moment” if Ukraine meets a list of demands.

These include acknowledging Crimea as Russian territory and recognising the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories.

I’m not sure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is going to play ball on that front. The man is fearless and has advocated for Ukrainians to keep on fighting.

Sky News spoke with Dr Chris Tuck, an expert in conflict and security from King’s College London, who mapped out three options to end the war.

Option 1: Escalating military action – including the potential use of chemical or nuclear weapons

Dr Tuck says there has already been elements of Mr Putin escalating military action with his increasing use of firepower – but he thinks the use of chemical or nuclear weapons “isn’t on the cards”…

“(Putin is) still trying to maintain the fiction that the bulk of the Ukrainian population are pro-Russian,” Dr Tuck says…

“If you go down that route of escalation, I think it becomes extraordinarily difficult. And of course, there are wider international political implications as well.”

Let’s hope he’s right. Russia has a serious weapons stash at its disposal.

Option 2: ‘Protraction’ with ‘Anaconda plan’

Dr Tuck says Mr Putin is currently pursuing a strategy of “protraction” by carrying out methodical military operations to surround key centres of resistance “and hope that Ukrainian morale fails”.

“It’s a kind of Anaconda strategy,” he says, referring to the military plan devised in the American Civil War involving blockades that was likened it to an anaconda suffocating its victim.

“You continue to protract the conflict, you encircle more cities where you can, you put pressure on those cities, you take as much as you can.”

Thus far, Ukrainians have shown no sign of backing down. Should the invasion stretch into weeks and months, Putin would hope to crush that resolve.

Tuck says he thinks Putin is favouring the above route as things stand.

Option 3: Negotiating a peace deal

Dr Tuck says a negotiated peace deal is unlikely at this stage “because Putin has tied himself so heavily, in political terms, to the success of this operation”.

Accepting anything less than his full demands would be “a major blow to his prestige”, the expert adds.

Surely damage to his ego would be too great? Putin would rather watch his people starve to death, or ramp things up to a full-scale World War III, than admit defeat.

Oh, about World War III…

Security experts who spoke with Sky News believe “it is only a matter of time until Russia’s invasion ignites the spark that triggers an existential global conflict”.

You can read all about that here.

Just when you think you’re maybe, ever so slightly headed for “precedented” times once more…

[source:sky]