[imagesource: AFP / Tolga Akmen]

On March 15, 2020, President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national state of disaster in terms of the Disaster Management Act.

COVID-19 was here, and we were about to enter into a series of lockdowns and curfews and beach bans and all the other things we’ll never forget about the past two or so years.

Are we ready to end that state of disaster? Health experts writing for The Daily Maverick reckon we are, arguing that “being on permanent “Code Red” affords little protection against a hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant such as Omicron and entails unacceptable societal costs”.

Bear in mind that these are actual health experts, not that person on Facebook who shares pixelated screenshots and says you must “do your own research”.

For example, Marc Mendelson is head of Infectious Diseases and HIV at UCT, Jeremey Nel is Head of Department, Infectious Diseases at Wits, and Shabir A Madhi is the Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences and Professor of Vaccinology at Wits.

Here’s the gist of their argument:

We have no truck with Covid-denialists or anti-vaxxers.

But change is needed now. The focus on Covid-19 has set back many other health programmes and broader socioeconomic and educational programmes.

Finally, the continued lack of accountability and transparency the act affords to politicians for unscientific and irrational decision-making on issues of public health is long past justification.

With the surge in infections due to the Omicron variant not overwhelming our hospitals and healthcare system, they argue that future waves (“barring the unlikelihood of mutations affecting all aspects of immune responses”) will lead to a similar result:

The vast majority of South Africans now have immunity, meaning Covid-19 in 2022 is likely to have a similar death rate to seasonal influenza (10,000-11,000 deaths a year) in the pre-Covid era, as opposed to the 290,000 Covid- related excess deaths over the past 22 months of the pandemic, and much lower than the projected 58,000 annual TB-related deaths.

The article is a lengthy one with explanations for each of the bullet points below but we’ll just highlight the recommendations:

• Stop school restrictions
• Reform how Covid is handled in healthcare facilities
• End all restrictions on outdoor activities
• End routine sanitising (and taking of contact details)
• End routine thermometry and daily screenings
• Stop fogging — yesterday [all those fogging tenders for government buildings – poof]
• Stop all PCR and antigen testing at borders
• Stop routine testing mild and asymptomatic cases
• End quarantine and contact tracing
• Reduce isolation
• Stop all curfews
• Replace the current vaccination programme with something radically better

There is also a discussion to be had around vaccine mandates, with the experts arguing that they should be considered “in the context of safeguarding healthcare systems from avoidable hospitalisations… particularly when people are involved in indoor gatherings”.

In summary, it’s time to do away with COVID-19 measures that are irrelevant (“best described as COVID theatre”):

We are advocating for a strong focus on those at risk of severe infection by increasing vaccination, masks being worn when indoors and maybe avoid indoors during a wave.

In the long term, vaccination is by far the greatest priority over other measures (including boosters, as needed).

The above is just a snapshot of their recommendations and explanations on each front and it’s worth reading the full article before you make any assumptions.

On the flip side, there are also those who argue against lifting the state of disaster too hastily. The Sunday Times reports:

Professor Mosa Moshabela, deputy vice-chancellor of research and innovation at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said ending the state of disaster is “not as simple as it sounds” because pandemic regulations cannot be implemented under the National Health Act as it stands.

“Our regulations are linked to the Disaster Management Act. If we end it then we don’t really have the legislation that is going to anchor those regulations. If anyone were to challenge the regulations in court, they would win.”

Doing away with the state of disaster would also mean an end to the special COVID social relief of distress grant, which would affect millions of vulnerable South Africans.

Ultimately, it’s about striking a balance:

Professor of infectious diseases at Stellenbosch University Wolfgang Preiser said: “If sensible, low-impact measures can be upheld without the state of disaster, fine. If not, perhaps legislation should be introduced to allow for that, so that the state of disaster can end but clever measures are still taken.”

Preiser said it was time to “move ahead and learn to live with the virus” but this did not mean “abandoning everything and pretending there is no virus”.

On January 14, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma announced our national state of disaster had been extended by another month and will now elapse on February 15.

However, both Health Minister Joe Phaahla and President Ramaphosa have since said that the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) is considering whether or not to continue with the state of disaster legislation.

[sources:dailymaverick&sundaytimes]