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Maybe it’s because we have information coming at us from every angle these days, but collectively we have very short memories.

For example, every summer we seem amazed by how windy it is in Cape Town. Was it this windy last summer? Surely not.

Then again, I do live in Vredehoek so at some point I have to accept this is my reality.

This brings us to load shedding which hasn’t struck the country for a decent stretch of time. But there it is, lurking in the shadows, and 2022 is going to be full of emergency alerts from EskomSePush.

Economists at investment bank BNP Paribas aren’t very bullish. Here’s BusinessTech:

“Eskom’s system adequacy report shows the ‘likely risk’ of load shedding as lying in stages 1-2 every month this year – with risk of higher stages in the event of higher unplanned breakdowns as occurred in 2021. This is likely to dampen GDP growth by at least 1 percentage point, in our view,” the bank said in a research note on Thursday (13 January).

Eskom chief executive Andre de Ruyter was also very honest in a December presentation, admitting our power system remained “unreliable and unpredictable”.

It wasn’t too long ago that there was talk of stage eight load shedding, remember?

January may be load shedding free but the same can’t be said for February or March and the winter months are also looking iffy:

Image: Business Tech/ BNP Paribas

We know that power stations are prone to go down at short notice for a multitude of reasons which worsens the problem.

Ongoing work at Eskom’s Koeberg nuclear power station will also reduce the generation capacity as two nuclear reactors are shut down sequentially, reports The Daily Maverick:

The life extension therefore increases the probability and risk of load shedding during 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, and any time overruns in the planned shutdown periods of either reactor will extend the risk and the consequences of load shedding.

In the unlikely case of extended time-overruns, resulting from serious unforeseen circumstances, the worst-case scenario would be that the life extension project may not be completed by the time the current operating licence expires in 2024.

Image: Eskom / PRNewswire

In this situation, the NNR may require the whole power station (1,840MW) to be shut down until the reactors are safe to restart, after all work is completed and a new operating licence is granted.

Eskom says that is unlikely but hey, I can’t say South Africans have overwhelming confidence in the power utility to deliver on its promises.

So maybe you have January to sort out a UPS for your router if you work from home, to ensure you remain online when the lights go out.

They can take our power, but they can never take our internet.

[sources:bustech&dailymav]