[imagesource: Matthias Balk / Getty Images]
First come the predictions, which had mid-December and into January as the dates for our inevitable fourth wave.
Take a look at the numbers released last night, showing confirmed infections over the past 24 hours, and it’s apparent that the fourth wave is here.
TimesLIVE reports that the number of new COVID-19 cases nearly doubled between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Gauteng is clearly the epicentre of the latest surge:
Figures from the NICD on Wednesday showed that there were 8,561 new infections reported in the past 24 hours, up from 4,373 reported the day before.
There would also be concerns around the positivity rate — the number of confirmed infections against the number of tests taken in the same period — which rose from 10.2% on Tuesday to 16.5% on Wednesday.
Health officials have previously said that a 12% positivity rate was cause for concern.
Of those 8 561 new cases, 6 168 cases are in Gauteng, following on from 3 143 new cases on Tuesday.
The Western Cape is next, with 626 new cases.
Focusing on Gauteng, that black line below is only in its infancy but it’s headed skyward at a rapid pace:
Update #COVID19 in GAUTENG
:
• 6,168 new cases today, 7-day avg up 424% week-on-week
• Case incidence up to 25% of previous peak, doubling every 3.5 days
• Test positivity = 15.9%
• 1035 currently in hospital#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #Omicron pic.twitter.com/ozszG2HIcb
— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 1, 2021
The province’s test positivity rate shows a steep incline and there’s also an uptick in hospital admissions:
As always, confirmed #COVID19 cases limited by testing capacity and testing strategy
Test positivity in Gauteng jumped to 15.9% for week ending 27 Nov, up from 4.7% in previous week
Increase in cases not an artefact of increased testing, with many more undetected cases
pic.twitter.com/oD6MNzdzM0
— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 1, 2021
What about hospitalisations in Gauteng?
New admissions increased by 144% last week or doubling about every 6 days
Remember: hospitalisations lag cases by 1-3 weeks, and with reporting delays need to wait a week to understand actual hospital admissions for previous week… pic.twitter.com/7eVbr3mk6e
— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 1, 2021
Last night, the Department of health head in the Western Cape, Dr Keith Cloete, confirmed that 15 cases of the Omicron variant have been identified in the province.
Here’s IOL:
He said more than 60% of specimens tested in the province over the past week had markers for the omicron variant but as of Tuesday, only 15 sequenced cases were confirmed – a figure he said was expected to rise in the coming days.
“We are seeing early signs of the fourth wave in the Western Cape in the context of the new variant. We urge everyone to adhere to protective behaviours to contain spread over the coming days and weeks,” he said.
Sigh. We’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end well.
Let’s enjoy a brief respite from the doom and gloom before we continue:
To keep sane these days one needs to laugh… Please see this 20sec video on the travel ban to Southern Africa pic.twitter.com/MHzPchZL0z
— Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna) December 1, 2021
Right, so what are we looking at restrictions wise over the coming weeks and months?
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has released forecast scenarios for South Africa’s lockdown levels and estimated that it will take at least five months before we come close to the target of vaccinating 70% of the adult population.
That doesn’t take into consideration possible vaccine mandates.
PwC has three scenarios – an upside scenario, a baseline scenario, and a downside scenario.
The upside option sees us remain on alert level 1 through December and January, with restrictions largely lifted by April 2022.
The baseline option predicts we switch to adjusted alert level 3 lockdown in the first half of January and back to alert level 2 later the same month, with restrictions largely lifted by November 2022.
The downside scenario (or worst-case scenario) is not pretty, reports BusinessTech:
- Level 1 lockdown to continue for the first half of December, moving to an adjusted level 3 lockdown in mid-December.
- This adjusted level 3 lockdown remains in place until the end of January 2022, with a level 2 lockdown introduced in early February.
- Level 1 lockdown restrictions remain in place for the first half of 2022, before another surge of infections lead to higher lockdown levels in July and August.
- The country keeps lockdown restrictions in place for the entirety of 2022.
Another entire year of lockdown restrictions. Please, no.
I’m pissing into the wind here, but get vaccinated. If not for you, then for those around you.
A quick snapshot of what international media is reporting about the Omicron variant in South Africa.
The Guardian with “Omicron variant fuelling ‘exponential’ rise in Covid cases, say South Africa officials”.
The Telegraph with “‘It has exploded’: GPs in Johannesburg swamped as Omicron Covid infections surge”.
We still don’t know a great deal about the Omicron variant but the numbers don’t look great heading into the festive season.
