[imagesource: News24]

Officially, as of last night, 82 496 South Africans have died from COVID-19.

Of our 2 787 203 confirmed cases, 144 102 are considered active, with 2 560 605 recoveries.

The thing to stress here is the word ‘officially’ because health experts are well aware that the true toll is far higher.

South Africa’s excess death numbers correlate very accurately with the timing of our COVID-19 waves.

In total, since March last year, close to 250 000 deaths from natural causes have been reported over and above what was expected during the same period.

News24 reports that Professor Debbie Bradshaw, a senior scientist working for the SA Medical Research Council’s (SAMRC) Burden of Disease Research Unit (BDRU), believes the official numbers released each night are lulling us into a false sense of security.

The BDRU together with scientists from the University of Cape Town’s Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe) estimates 80% of the 249 000 excess natural deaths, which include the number of reported Covid-19 deaths, can be linked to Covid-19 – valuable evidence that the true death toll from Covid-19 is being significantly underreported.

A quick number crunch shows that 80% of 249 000 is just north of 199 000.

Add that to the 82 496 confirmed deaths, and you’re looking at a number far, far worse than we see in the news each night.

…Bradshaw previously pointed to the strong correlation between the timing and location of excess natural deaths, and surges in Covid-19 cases, as evidence to show most excess natural deaths were linked to Covid-19.

A News24 analysis of reported Covid-19 cases and excess deaths estimates showed this strong correlation clearly during the first and second waves.

When plotted out on an infographic, things become clearer.

This deals with excess natural deaths and reported COVID-19 cases:

Image: News24 / Rudi Louw

The same correlation is visible when you plot excess deaths alongside confirmed COVID-19 deaths.

Bradshaw says their research “leaves us with no doubt that the majority of the excess deaths are COVID-19-related.”

The Department of Health has, in the past, said that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, and promised further studies into the matter.

There is no word on the progress of those studies.

[source:news24]