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The Western Cape is currently the epicentre of the third wave, recording 3 931 new infections in the 24 hours prior to the release of last night’s stats.

Thankfully, there are some signs that we have reached our peak, although the numbers coming out of KwaZulu-Natal (3 750), the Eastern Cape (1 877), Gauteng (1 756), and the Free State (995) are still a worry for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

The official number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Africa stands at 2 638 981, with 78 377 recorded fatalities, and 158 584 active cases.

We all know the real numbers are very different, but according to Emile Stipp, the actuary at Discovery Health, as many as four out of five South Africans may have COVID-19 already.

Not have had. May have had.

That would make South Africa one of the world’s hardest-hit nations by COVID-19.

More from Bloomberg:

[Stipp] based his calculations on the country’s case-fatality rate and excess deaths, a measure of the number of fatalities compared with an historical average. They are thought to provide a more accurate picture of the impact of the pandemic than the official toll.

“If we know the mortality rate of Covid, we can deduce the likely infection level,” Stipp said in an emailed response to questions.

The infection rate of between 70% and 80%, as estimated by Stipp, is high by global standards and could push South Africa close to so-called herd immunity, estimated at between 80% and 90% by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Still, it’s possible that the delta variant of the virus could reinfect those who contracted other strains.

On that last point, Prof Adrian Puren, the NICD’s Acting Executive Director, said back in June that it “is important to be mindful that reinfection with the Delta variant is possible following a Beta infection, due to waning of immunity”.

In other words, those who may have had COVID-19 previously (during the second wave, the Beta variant was dominant) are not necessarily immune from catching the Delta variant.

Back to Stipp’s methodology:

Stipp said he based his assessment on the assumption that 90% of excess deaths reported by the South African Medical Research Council were due to Covid-19.

The SAMRC estimates South Africa’s excess death number at 229,850 during the pandemic, compared with an official Covid-19 death toll of 77,993.

The country’s case fatality rate is 3%.

In May, Stipp said during a presentation that he estimated the infection rate at 62,3%, but has revised upwards significantly with his latest estimate.

The national health department plans to vaccinate 70% of the adult population by the end of the year. Currently, only about 12% are vaccinated.

Healthcare workers are, thankfully, with the Limpopo health department reporting that not a single COVID-19 vaccinated healthcare worker has died during the third wave.

[source:bloomberg]