[imagesource: Cheyne Gateley/VIP]

Experts have been warning that the third wave of COVID-19 infections is imminent for some time now, despite the rollout of vaccinations.

Although notably, the rollout isn’t breaking any speed records. Phase two is expected to commence on May 17 for essential workers and vulnerable people.

The government is also on high alert for the COVID-19 variant, B.1.617,  circulating in India, after a man who had travelled to the country tested positive for COVID-19. The exact variant that he is being treated for hasn’t been confirmed.

At this stage, not much is known about the third wave in South Africa, but battle stations are being prepared to fend off the estimated 70 000 deaths that will result from a rise in infections if the response isn’t rapid and well planned.

According to TimesLIVE, these “figures are according to the latest model by the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium”.

The researchers said the modelled scenarios “do not yet include the impact of vaccination and do not estimate the timing of a third wave”. There is “substantial uncertainty” about if and when a new variant might emerge, and changes in population behaviour “remain unpredictable”.

Unfortunately, we’re well over a year into the pandemic, and some people still haven’t caught on to physical distancing, mask-wearing, and hand sanitizing.

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases has also published its latest modelling report designed to help countries track the start of the third wave.

While it doesn’t predict when the wave will hit, seasonal factors seem to play a role in the rise of infection rates, and we’re heading into winter.

Per BusinessTech, Gauteng is marked as the area that will be hardest hit across all scenarios in part due to a higher number of “working-age adults and people with comorbidities”.

“Across provinces, the time from initial increase in transmission to the peak is on average 2-3 months. It should be noted however, that these results are subject to substantial uncertainty due to the incompleteness of the seroprevalence and other underlying data, and unknown future population behaviour,” the NICD said.

For the government to reach its vaccination goal of 16,5 million vaccinated people by October, they’re going to have to vaccinate 100 000 people a day.

Under the Sisonke programme, we were looking at 6 000 a day.

This is allegedly set to improve over the coming months.

[source:timeslive&bussinesstech]