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We have just had ourselves a pretty wet winter.

Better still, dam levels neared, or reached, 100%, and for the first time in ages, Capetonians could enjoy a bath without feeling too guilty.

So we’re in the clear, our three biggest dams are hovering around 96% full, and we’ll never have to worry about the Mad Max-like scenarios that were being talked about at the height of the Day Zero panic, right?

Um, not exactly. TimesLIVE reports that a group of scientists from Stanford University predict these sorts of scenarios will become increasingly common going forward:

“In a way, the ‘Day Zero drought might have been a sort of taste of what the future may be,” said lead author Salvatore Pascale, a research scientist at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth).

“In the worst-case scenario, events such as the ‘Day Zero’ drought may become about 100 times more likely than what they were in the early 20th-century world.”

The team used new high-resolution simulations and concluded that human-caused climate change made the drought five to six times more likely.

The study added that “a devastating drought” – which is what caused our Day Zero situation and brought us the horror of Splash the mascot – “could impact the region two or three times in a decade”.

As a warning, the study’s authors concluded that Cape Town faces an 80% higher chance of another Day Zero drought by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising at current rates.

After the upsurge of neighbours turning on neighbours under lockdown (Karen said you were out until 9:15AM, and exercise hours ended at 9AM), the last thing we need is a return to the dark days of monitoring how much water your neighbour was using.

During that time, we did at least cover ourselves in a little international glory:

A report just released by the City of Cape Town’s Water and Waste Portfolio Committee details how “Cape Town became known around the world as a city that nearly ran out of water in 2018” but that “a combined effort by residents, business and government helped avoid a potential catastrophe through dramatic reduction water use”.

It said that “effective management of the crisis has now ultimately earned Cape Town the title of Number One Water Saving City in the World”.

That sounds like the sort of title Borat would bestow upon us.

Sadly, whilst our taps didn’t run dry, the Stanford University study estimated that lower crop yields as a result of the Day Zero drought cost the local economy in excess of R6 billion, as well as thousands of jobs.

To finish, here’s Pascale warning against complacency:

“I’m sure that many Cape Town residents have forgotten what happened now that lakes and water reservoirs are back to normal. But this is the moment to rethink the old way of managing water for a future when there will be less water available.”

And just like that, the guilt-free bath was no more.

You can read more on the Stanford study here.

[source:timeslive]