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Technically, today is our 210th day under a national lockdown, but it’s clear that for many, the shackles have come off.

Large gatherings and attending sports matches may be a no-go, for example, but the more stringent restrictions that were placed on our everyday lives have, in many areas under alert level 1, fallen away.

At the same time, public health experts and our health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, are sounding the alarm about a “resurgence”, or “second surge”, or “second wave” – pick your description of choice.

Mkhize and his wife, Dr May Mkhize, have just recovered from COVID-19, and yesterday the health minister spoke about outbreaks that he finds alarming.

Here’s TimesLIVE:

Evidence showed, he said, that there are “small fires” burning. While there is no need to panic, these cannot be ignored.

“This morning, after reading and analysing our country’s epidemiological reports, as the minister of health, I cannot help but be concerned. Fellow South Africans, when we emphasise that the risk of a resurgence remains high, we do not do so to instil fear in you.

“As government, we have a responsibility to alert you when we see concerning trends. It would be irresponsible of us to ignore ‘small flames’ that we see redeveloping in some parts of the country,” he said.

The latest stats from last night show South Africa recorded 85 more COVID-19-related deaths, bringing the death toll to 18 741.

There were 2 055 cases reported in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 708 359 confirmed cases.

Of these, only 47 912 are active cases.

Mkhize went on to say that he’s particularly concerned about the Western Cape, with the province recording a 42% increase in the seven days prior to his statement, adding that “according to our resurgence plan, we define this significant spike in new cases in the Western Cape as a resurgence”.

He alluded to the infamous Tin Roof alleged ‘super spreader’ event without naming the venue in question.

These comments didn’t sit well with Western Cape Premier Alan Winde, who said that while he is concerned about an increase in COVID-19 cases in the province, it cannot be classified as a resurgence.

This via News24:

Winde said the provincial government’s seven day “rolling average” of new cases had indicated 1 757 new cases recorded in the week to 19 October versus 1 546 the previous week.

“This represents an increase of 13.65% in new cases in the seven-day period,” he said…

“The Department of Health’s own definition of a resurgence is an increase of more than 20% in new cases over a seven-day period. The Western Cape has not recorded such an increase in the past seven days.”

Winde added that the province is “on full alert and responding”.

You only need to look at Europe, where a number of countries have returned to lockdowns over the past two weeks, to see why some South Africans are worried.

Ireland has announced a nationwide “stay at home” order for six weeks, Belgium is shutting down bars and restaurants for a month, and Wales has imposed a 14-day “fire-break” lockdown.

The Czech Republic announced lockdown plans on Wednesday, and France, Germany, and Spain have set regional restrictions this month.

That’s not even a comprehensive list – see more here.

Earlier in the week, South Africa’s leading epidemiologist and infectious diseases specialist, Prof Salim Abdool Karim, said a second wave is inevitable if we don’t change our behaviour.

He spoke with Stephen Grootes on SAfm on Monday, and the details below come via TimesLIVE:

[He] said travelling should be limited on “local scale” due to the risk it posed…

SA’s transmission levels are at endemic levels, with between two and five infections per 1,000 daily. But Abdool Karim warned that the “know-do gap” — the gap between what we know and what we do in practice — is growing rapidly and may spell disaster for the country.

“When level of complacency goes up the virus starts finding its foothold and starts spreading again,” he said.

What we know for absolute certainty is that there are countless businesses, from restaurants and hotels through to larger enterprises that employ thousands across the country, that would not survive another ‘hard’ lockdown.

Our current infection rate would have to rise quite significantly before that was a measure seriously on the table, but it is worrying to see what is happening in other parts of the world.

You get the feeling that if our government tries to ban the sale of liquor and tobacco once more, there will be rioting in the streets.

[sources:timeslive&news24&timeslive]