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At the start of the pandemic, many people were looking at southern Africa and wondering why we were so late to the party with our COVID-19 infection rates.

However, when the virus hit, it hit hard, and we’re struggling along with everyone else to get a handle on it.

Back then, however, a theory was doing the rounds positing that the virus was having a tough time getting a foothold here because we were in the middle of a particularly warm summer.

That theory has persisted in various forms over the past few months, bolstered by what looked like evidence from other parts of the world, which scientists have been trying to make sense of.

Put simply, the theory went that COVID-19 peaked in winter.

As TimesLIVE points out, however, that doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case. Research by South African scientists at Witwatersrand University pointed out that studies focused solely on climate neglect important socioeconomic conditions, alongside the timing of the virus’ arrival.

Speaking to Times Select, Wits University climate expert Prof Bob Scholes (below) said at this stage there was no discernible link between the virus and climate. But as datasets grow, things would become clearer.

Scholes and his colleagues, Francois Engelbrecht and Jennifer Fitchett, presented their findings at a virtual World Meteorological Organisation symposium.

“The data cannot tell us whether such an effect is in place,” he said, adding some studies that had said winter worsened the spread were based on our understanding of “other seasonal infections”.

Image: Wits University

Those studies are “quite flawed”, according to Scholes. “You can have it [the virus] in tropical places or cold places when it is that powerful,” he said.

He also said that the seasons could increase the likelihood of a second wave of infections next year.

“Once [the virus] becomes endemic in a population, things change. Even going through this peak now, we won’t have reached herd immunity as a country. So the virus hangs around until circumstances push it over the edge for a second wave – and then is when the climate effect could come in,” said Scholes.

“That second wave”, he says, “could be more or less severe”, depending on the degree of herd immunity established in the first wave.

Increased infections in winter could come as a result of a number of factors that have nothing to do with the weather as such.

In the colder months, people are more likely to stay indoors, and when people live in poorly ventilated houses in overcrowded settlements, the virus thrives. Tuberculosis in South Africa has been spread due to these same factors.

As we edge towards the summer months – which are coming despite all the snowfall – we can’t count on the sun to stem the spread of the virus.

As an aside, Wits is really leading the pack when it comes to studies on the virus and vaccines.

[source:timeslive]