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Can you smell that?

It’s the faint whisp of what is, slowly but surely, starting to resemble freedom.

That’s otherwise known as alert level 2, where you can visit friends and family (no more than 10 people at a time, though, so choose wisely), and buy booze and cigarettes over the counter, as opposed to over WhatsApp.

We have to take our small wins where we can get them.

Of course, as life returns to a semblance of normality, so too does the risk of the spread of COVID-19 increase.

During a webinar hosted yesterday, three medical experts – Prof Salim Abdool Karim, Prof Glenda Gray, and Prof Felicity Burt – voiced concerns of a second surge.

TimesLIVE reports:

Prof Abdool Karim [below] said the downward decline is consistent and the number of patients presenting at hospitals is also declining.

Image: Mail & Guardian

“What we are seeing is a promising trend, and it looks like we are on the decline. A question that I am often asked is — is the worst over? The answer is not clear cut. We are concerned about the risk of a second surge. If anything — what really concerns me at this stage is a second surge, as I think about how the pandemic may play out in the next few weeks,” said Abdool Karim.

Even a country like New Zealand, which seemed to have a handle on things for a good 100 days, has now seen the virus return, although with 13 confirmed new cases today, it has yet to spiral out of control.

That’s an island nation with strict border control and intense quarantine regulations, so we’re definitely at a disadvantage there.

Back to Karim:

“We need to transition from being scared to a situation where we can control our risk; when we know that we can control the risk and then influence the risk, we influence the risk of everyone around us. Part of the new normal is the strategy of mitigation with prevention, plus preventing outbreaks.”

Prof Gray dived into the issue of students returning to schools, stating her belief that this should happen as soon as possible, although older teachers with comorbidities need to be kept out of direct contact, with the same true for parents.

Prof Burt touched on how South Africa needs to implement “forecasting, early detection, and a more rapid response” if it really wants to slow the spread of COVID-19, with our current strategy “largely reactive rather than proactive”.

The latest numbers, released last night, showed 2 541 confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours, with 143 new deaths.

Whilst our total confirmed cases stand at 589 886, the fifth most in the world, there are actually 100 233 active cases, which is 10th on the list.

[source:timeslive]