[imagesource: Mike Hutchings / Reuters]

While the battle has really only just begun, there are some slightly encouraging signs in the latest official, reported data regarding South Africa’s COVID-19 cases.

In fact, for the first time since early March, when South Africa had its first confirmed case of COVID-19, the rate at which cases are increasing daily in the country has started declining.

Again, when you consider that we have 8 539 deaths and 516 862 confirmed cases (the fifth highest in the world), it’s clear we still have a crisis on our hands, but we have to acknowledge our small gains where we can.

The drop in the rate of increase is due in large part to Gauteng recording lower numbers (some suggest the Western Cape’s infection rate peaked in early July), reports News24:

Since early July, the average daily case increases over seven days rose above 10 000 new cases a day, rising to a high of more than 12 000, and now declining again slightly, to just over 10 000.

The slight decline is visible when the seven-day rolling average is mapped over time with the actual reported daily case increase.

News24’s infographic, using data correct as of August 1 and compiled by Rudi Louw, shows the decline:

It should be pointed out that daily testing has also declined, which would obviously have played a role in the downward curve of that graphic above, and the positive test rate has remained consistent at around 25%.

When speaking about the stats this past weekend, President Ramaphosa said that “while there are promising signs, now is not the time to let down our guard”.

Cool – we will do our bit, and you stop your comrades from continuing the “feeding frenzy”.

One of the areas in which the country is struggling is the speedy return of test results in the public sector, which does mean plotting any trends comes with a caveat:

This analysis is potentially problematic when made with the reported totals of cases and tests released daily by the national Department of Health, because of the remaining uncertainty over when the samples tested were collected.

It is possible that samples collected from patients over a number of days could be batched together in the daily reporting, making a time-based analysis flawed.

Finally, whilst our confirmed cases counter ticks past half a million, we should remember that the number of active cases is also an important indicator.

Active cases are calculated by taking the total confirmed cases, and subtracting the total deaths and recoveries.

South Africa currently has 150 286 active cases (it was 152 676 on August 1, as you can see below), and the number has remained reasonably steady over the past two or so weeks:

The majority of those who contract COVID-19 will make a full recovery, which is great, but some studies are already showing that survivors are at greater risk of suffering long-term damage with regards to certain health conditions.

In short, you’d really rather not get it at all, so continue to keep your guard up and take the necessary precautions to protect yourself, and others.

You can see the rest of the News24 infographics here.

[source:news24]