[imagesource: AP Photo/Themba Hadebe]

The latest numbers released last night show that South Africa’s COVID-19 death toll stands at 5 940, with 394 948 confirmed cases.

That puts us fifth in the world, behind only the US, Brazil, India, and Russia, although it’s important to note that we have also had 229 175 recoveries, meaning there are 159 833 active cases in the country.

Still, yesterday saw 572 new deaths, far surpassing the previous highest daily toll of 215.

As reported last week, research by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) and University of Cape Town’s Centre for Actuarial Research shows that we may still not be getting anywhere near the full picture with regards to how many lives the pandemic is actually claiming.

Using the latest data from the same bodies, released yesterday, excess deaths between May 6 and July 14 have now topped 17 000, and South Africans are dying at a much higher rate than expected.

Here’s News24:

“In the past weeks, the numbers have shown a relentless increase – by the second week of July, there were 59% more deaths from natural causes than would have been expected based on historical data. It also means that reported deaths have shown a pattern that is completely different to those indicated by historical trends,” the SAMRC said in a statement on Wednesday.

Professor Debbie Bradshaw, a co-author of the report, said the “timing and geographic pattern leaves no room to question whether this is associated with the COVID-19 epidemic”.

There is no way of proving that all, or even the large majority of, those excess deaths are due to COVID-19, but the numbers available are markedly higher in provinces with the worst virus outbreaks:

The Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are experiencing excess natural deaths. These are the hardest-hit provinces in terms of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases…

Image: SAMRC-UCT Weekly Mortality Report 22 July 2020

For people between the ages of one and 59, the excess number of deaths is 5 889 and 11 175 for people 60 and older.

There are organisations that disagree with the data, such as the folks at Pandemic Data and Analytics (PANDA), but SAMRC has been tracking these numbers for decades.

They do note that part of the increase in excess deaths could also be as a result of people dying from non-COVID-19 diseases like TB and HIV because hospitals are already overburdened, and health services are focusing on COVID-19 treatment.

Even factoring in those uncertainties, the council’s report states that “given the timing and geographic spread of the increases seen in the natural deaths, there can be no doubt that the bulk of the increase is related directly or indirectly to COVID-19”.

Still, at this stage of the pandemic, you’ll see people point to the death toll and talk about how it’s not much worse than the flu.

If you think that’s true, you might want to talk to one of the healthcare workers on the front line, because they already do, or will eventually have, horror stories to tell.

[sources:news24]