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At 11:59PM on Thursday, March 26, South Africa’s national lockdown began.

We were told to batten down the hatches for 21 days, in order to flatten the curve and buy our healthcare sector some time to prepare for what was always going to turn into a serious battle.

At the time, our actions were praised as being ruthlessly efficient, but over the weeks and months, as with anything that our government touches, the situation went downhill at a rate of knots.

Our hospitals are now the stuff of horror movies, and the procurement of equipment needed for healthcare workers to protect themselves, and others, against the spread of COVID-19, has been wracked by “wasteful expenditure”, otherwise known as corruption.

Whilst we are still very much in the middle of the pandemic, there will come a time when lockdown measures are further eased, and then dropped altogether.

News24 spoke with a number of South African historians and psychologists, who agree that lockdowns enacted as a result of a disease “typically end before the pandemic ends”.

It’s easy to understand why, as we near 120 days of lockdown – people start breaking the rules, and their “social needs overtake the fear of the virus”.

First up is University of Cape Town emeritus history professor Howard Phillips, who referenced how the country reacted to the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed an estimated 300 000  to 350 000 South Africans:

“There are reports that during the Spanish Flu outbreak in South Africa, the wearing of masks was mentioned, but self-isolation was more common, farmers locking their gates and forbidding strangers from visiting, and people locking themselves in their homes,” Phillips told News24…

Phillips said from the day a lockdown was implemented, it should be expected that people started visiting their friends and family.

“People get bored and are inherently social individuals so can live without human contact for only so long.”

Formally, he added, the governments often started relaxing lockdown regulations around worship and going to church, followed by the reopening of schools.

The relaxation of regulations around worship happened a while back, to great criticism, and the debate around the reopening of schools is ongoing.

Many are calling for the school year to be scrapped altogether, or at least be shut until late August.

News24 also spoke with University of KwaZulu-Natal history professor Mphumeleli Ngidi:

Ngidi said a lockdown typically ended before the end of the pandemic because people started breaking rules soon after regulations were introduced.

“People can only handle disruptions to their lives for a certain period of time before they rebel, and governments cannot keep a lid on society forever.

“People will start attempting to resume their pre-pandemic lives as the attitude seems to be that they need to earn a living, have some fun and entertainment, and be able to pray.”

The earning a living part is certainly front and centre when you consider what the data says about how the pandemic has influenced livelihoods.

Read this for a closer look at what New Frame calls “a devastating picture”.

Both of those quoted above paint a picture of a lockdown where public buy-in, with regards to adhering to the regulations put in place, is quickly wearing thin, making a lockdown seem unsustainable for much longer.

Perhaps the biggest issue with public compliance is the growing sense of distrust that many South Africans feel towards those making the big calls.

We were told there would be a “hotspot” approach to decision-making going forward, yet the last time we heard from President Ramaphosa, a blanket national ban was placed on the sale of liquor, amongst other things.

The Daily Maverick with why this is important:

As with the Covid-19 hotspot policy, the government’s Risk-Adjusted Strategy that determines lockdown levels also appears to be changed at will…

That must raise serious questions over policy-making and implementation. It seems the government’s reluctance to move to Level 2, or to restart public consultations led to a fiddling of the lockdown Level 3 takes.

At least some of that relates to tensions between the constitutionalists and the securocrats. But some of it also ties to elite lobbies.

Out of favour is the liquor industry, whose representatives are on public record as saying that they had not been consulted.

Banning alcohol sales will almost certainly have an effect on the number of trauma cases admitted to hospitals around the country, but the lack of consultation is puzzling when weighed up against how involved the taxi industry was in decisions related to that sector.

As medical experts have pointed out, the risks posed by taxis being loaded to capacity are large.

When it comes to fighting COVID-19, there are very few win-win decisions, and yesterday an additional 13 449 cases reported across the country, bringing the total number to 364 328.

Factoring in the 191 059 recoveries, and 5 033 deaths, that means there are at least 168 236 active cases.

Simply ending the lockdown would only heap further pressure on the healthcare sector, but it would be interesting to hear from President Ramaphosa, and other members of the National Coronavirus Command Council, about what the longer-term plans are.

On May 31, during a call with members of the South African National Editors’ Forum (SANEF), Ramaphosa said that he would be happy to take questions from journalists in the future.

Since then, he has delivered a number of addresses to the nation, none of which have been followed up by taking questions from the media.

His ministers may face questions at briefings, with varying degrees of success, but Ramaphosa has yet to call a single media conference, or invited anybody to probe the decisions he makes and the reasons behind them.

If this was a former president – he who shall not be named – you’d imagine he would be lambasted for such a lack of accountability.

Who knows how much longer the national lockdown goes on for, and the ever-increasing rates of infection suggest a while still, but at some point, the citizens of this country deserve to have their questions heard.

[sources:news24&dailymaverick]