[imagesource: Rodger Bosch / AFP]

On Tuesday night, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize announced a further 192 COVID-19 deaths, as well as 10 134 new infections.

That brings the total number of deaths to 3 502, with 215 855 infections and 102 299 recoveries.

Thinking back to the early days of lockdown, when the daily number of new cases was consistently in double figures, is a jarring reminder of how the pandemic is spiralling out of control.

Less than two weeks ago, we detailed how it took 95 days for the country to reach 50 000 cases, and only another 14 to hit 100 000.

Using data correct as of Monday, News24 has now mapped out how we hit the 200 000-case mark just 14 days after hitting the 100 000 mark:

This surge in cases can be attributed to a significant spike in the number of cases being found in Gauteng, the most densely populated province in the country…

Mapping confirmed cases by day of each province’s respective local epidemic provides clarity on how fast Gauteng has caught up to the Western Cape.

This News24 graphic, by Rudi Louw, shows how Gauteng (the red line) has all but caught up to the Western Cape (the blue line):

The Western Cape, however, has far more recoveries, and 17 836 active cases, compared to Gauteng’s 51 231 active cases.

This table from Hydra Africa uses the data made available last night, which is why the numbers differ from those above:

The dire situation in the Eastern Cape, and the collapsing healthcare system, has been well documented, but it’s very alarming to see cases in KwaZulu-Natal on the increase.

If that situation worsens, expect similar horror stories of ill-prepared hospitals and healthcare workers pushed to the brink.

Looking at the rolling seven-day average of confirmed cases in each province (correct as of Monday), the Western Cape looks to be peaking at present, whereas Gauteng, the Eastern Cape, and KZN, may still have some way to go:

Using the current rate of doubling cases, South Africa would reach 400 000 confirmed cases by July 20.

For a look at how the testing numbers have increased, and a comparison of the private and public sectors on that front, as well as a breakdown of recoveries by province, see the rest of the News24 graphics here.

Mask up.

[source:news24]