[imagesource: Courtney Africa/African News Agency]

Throughout our national lockdown, Professor Shabir Madhi hasn’t minced his words.

A Professor of Vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand, the director of the Medical Research Council Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, and a member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee (MAC), Madhi is clearly someone whose words carry weight.

Recently, he’s spoken out about the surge in COVID-19 infections in the Eastern and Western Cape, pointing out that, as a country, we are “nowhere near ready” for what’s coming.

I said he was forthright, not reassuring.

When responding to a question on the issue of the tobacco sales ban, during a MyHealthTV.com webinar last night, he was honest in his assessment.

Here’s News24:

“The evidence around cigarettes and Covid-19 is that smokers are known to have a 1.5 greater risk at developing severe disease than non-smokers, so that is the scientific evidence.

“In terms of whether they are more likely to die, there isn’t very compelling evidence to show any difference in terms of Covid-19 mortality deaths.”

The scientist said this was the scientific evidence – but as to whether stopping smoking would protect you against Covid-19, the answer was “no” – because the damage caused by smoking does not occur overnight, according to Madhi.

Madhi did point out that the damage caused to the lungs by smoking makes people more susceptible to developing severe symptoms after contracting COVID-19, as well as a number of other diseases, but added that “it does not mean that, if you stop smoking today, you are going to reverse that sort of risk.”

The ban on the sale of tobacco is also not stopping the large majority of smokers from continuing the habit, as well-known, regulated brands lose market share to illicit cigarettes, which are often more harmful than their controlled counterparts.

Smokers are paying higher prices, for inferior quality products, and the government is losing out on massive amounts of tax revenue.

If you happened to catch any of finance minister Tito Mboweni’s emergency budget yesterday, you’ll know that is a loss we can ill afford.

With comments like these from Madhi, and the litany of court cases against many of the lockdown measures, increased scrutiny will fall on Cogta Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to explain the tobacco sales ban.

When pressed earlier this week to a written parliamentary question from DA MP Zakhele Mbhele regarding that ban, Dlamini-Zuma’s response was as follows:

“The information requested by the Honourable Member is not readily available in the department. The information will be submitted to the Honourable Member as soon as it is available. Thank you.”

Incidentally, that is the exact, word for word answer she also gave when pressed on the decision to declare COVID-19 a national disaster, and the exact, word for word answer she gave to DA MP Dean Macpherson last month, when he asked for information regarding alert level regulations.

One more for the road:

So the DA asked her if she knew in which municipality South Africa’s capital city is located. Her answer was : “the information requested by the Honourable Member will be submitted as soon as it is available. Credit to my brilliant colleague George Michalakis MP for the question

— James Robert Lorimer (@JamesRLorimer) June 24, 2020

Zero accountability to the people.

Back to Madhi, who also pointed out that the sale of alcohol is likely more harmful in the fight against COVID-19, with healthcare facilities now under increased pressure due to a rise in the number of trauma cases.

During the same webinar, Madhi also spoke of South Africa experiencing “three to four waves”, adding that we are still in the first wave of the pandemic.

This News24 graph, showing how South Africa took 95 days to reach 50 000 confirmed cases, and just 14 more to reach 100 000, shows a curve that’s only headed in one direction:

Madhi speaks of those waves stretching right through until 2022, and said the severity of those peaks would depend on how South Africans behave. Again from News24:

“It is not dependent on any policy government comes up with, it is not dependent on whatever level of lockdown we are at, it is completely dependent on the behavior of South Africans,” he argued.

Madhi further stated that, in countries where there has been a waning of the outbreak, it has been based on lockdowns and citizens of that country.

“It’s been based because of lockdowns, but more important than that, it was about citizens of the country adhering to the non-pharmaceutical interventions which we now know are effective in terms of reducing the rate of the transmission of the virus.

In particular, that adherence refers to avoiding mass gatherings, safe physical distancing measures, the use of face masks, and other practical measures that have been touted over the past few months.

You can read the rest of Madhi’s comments on that matter here.

Strap in, South Africa – a long and bumpy road still lies ahead.

[sources:news24&news24]