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The plan is to move to alert level 3 at the end of May, opening up more industries and lowering some of the restrictions on movement during the lockdown.

But, as the government has made clear, this might not be the case for the whole of South Africa, with some suggesting that Cape Town, in particular, is in danger of remaining on alert level 4, or worse.

News24 reports that early analysis by the Department of Health “has revealed the seven hardest-hit districts likely to remain at high-risk stages”.

Ekurhuleni metro in Gauteng, eThekwini metro and iLembe District in KwaZulu-Natal, Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay metros in the Eastern Cape as well as the Cape Town City metro and the Cape Winelands district in the Western Cape have the highest number of Covid-19 infections in the country.

This data is based on the number of active cases recorded between May 2 and May 8, used to determine the rate of infection per 100 000 people.

Health Minister Zweli Mkhize explained to News24 that districts were being grouped by the average number of active cases per 100 000 people over a set time period, and categorised in intervals of between 0 and 0.5, 0.5 to 1, between 1 and 5, between 5 and 10 and above 10.

The infographic below shows the rates of infection per district:

Source: News24

Cape Town remains the district with the highest number of infections to date, with average cases at roughly 50 per 100 000.

At the same time, as the infographic below illustrates, the Western Cape is testing at a far higher level than other districts with 1 211 tests per 100 000 residents:

Source: News24

Mkhize has noted that in easing the lockdown, South Africa is actually going against The World Health Organisation’s list of criteria for lifting restrictions.

The WHO lists six criteria for safely lifting restrictions, and South Africa does not tick all of the below:

• Evidence should show Covid-19 transmission is controlled, with strong surveillance in place and a consistent decline in number of positive cases
• Public health and health system capacities need to be in place to identify, isolate, test, treat and quarantine every case and trace every contact
• Outbreak risks need to be minimised in high-vulnerability settings, particularly in homes for the aged, mental health facilities and crowded residential areas
• Workplace and school preventative measures are established, including physical distancing, hand washing facilities and respiratory etiquette (masks)
• Importation risks must be managed
• Communities must be fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the new norm (participation in the transition of lockdown)

You can read more, and take in additional infographics, here.

Meetings are currently underway that will determine how the stages will be rolled out, with President Ramaphosa stating that there would be “extensive consultation with provincial stakeholders” in the days and weeks to come.

[source:news24]