[imagesource: Tracy Lee Stark]

Back in early April, when our national lockdown was in its infancy and staying at home seemed like a convenient excuse to get out of events you didn’t want to attend, the BBC called our coronavirus response “ruthlessly efficient”.

Other countries looked at South Africa as a model example of how early, decisive action could curb the spread of the virus, and President Cyril Ramaphosa was lauded for his leadership, with each address to the nation followed by citizens talking of feeling reassured.

Well, as the lockdown continues, “doubts creep in”, and the BBC’s Andrew Harding has taken a closer look at how the mindset has begun to shift:

…we are now over six weeks into what remains one of the toughest lockdowns on earth, the government’s health experts are predicting that the peak of the epidemic may still be two or three months away, infection numbers are surging in some regions, and the shocked silence and prompt conformity that greeted Mr Ramaphosa’s early diktats has been replaced by an increasingly sceptical, angry, and politicised debate.

A return to business as usual in this famously fractious nation?

Perhaps. But South Africa is entering a long and difficult period in its fight against Covid-19…

With a third of the country going to bed hungry, and studies that point to the potential for an extended lockdown to turn into a “humanitarian disaster to dwarf COVID-19”, the support for easing of lockdown measures has become more vocal.

As pressure grows on the government’s key decision-makers, Harding says “the image of a united African National Congress (ANC) cabinet…is being eroded”:

A gap appears to separate those who, perhaps more inclined to follow China’s example, are in favour of a more intrusive, heavy-handed approach by the state – including plans to quarantine new confirmed virus cases in hospitals, and the decision to extend the controversial ban on all cigarette and alcohol purchases and to enforce a new overnight curfew – from those in cabinet more attuned to the interests of the business lobby which would prefer to see a lighter touch and the lockdown eased more quickly…

Business leaders are now warning that if the lockdown does not ease sharply soon, South Africa’s gross domestic product could shrink by over 16%, and up to four million jobs could be threatened – staggering figures for any country, but particularly challenging for an economy already in recession and wrestling with a 27% unemployment rate.

When it comes to easing lockdown measures, the debate has often been framed as doing so at the cost of human lives, or speaking from positions of privilege.

In many cases, that appears to be true, but a reminder that it is possible to approach the issue from multiple angles:

Friendly reminder pic.twitter.com/dYhDz7WWBX

— Louisa Theart (@louisaflute) May 10, 2020

Harding finishes:

Seeking to rise above these disputes, President Ramaphosa has emphasised the dangers – already seen in other countries – of a “second wave” of infections.

Looming over all these concerns and considerations is the key issue of South Africa’s own health system and whether it can contain the viral spikes that many experts now believe are approaching, and whether the crucial weeks of extra time gained by the government’s initial Dunkirk strategy have been put to good enough use to turn the tide in the Stalingrad battles that may yet lie ahead.

Everybody loves a good war analogy.

There is clearly no blueprint for moving forward that doesn’t involve some form of risk, and the South African government is now looking at the possibility of downgrading to alert level 3.

That would mean a number of regulations being eased (yes, the sale of alcohol and tobacco products included), but there is still the chance that certain provinces or metropoles which have been the hardest hit could remain on alert level 4.

Whatever happens from here on out, it appears that the feelgood factor that came with our early response has evaporated for many, so prepare for the political squabbles, and social media meltdowns, to continue.

Read the full BBC report here.

[source:bbc]