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There is no easy fix, or ‘one size fits all’ approach, to the balancing act between ending lockdown and invigorating the economy, and protecting the lives of South Africa’s most vulnerable citizens.

Viral open letters have been penned, damning facts and figures about job losses have emerged, and South Africans continue to suffer through poorly organised (and often corrupt) food parcel deliveries and SASSA grant glitches that left millions without a cent.

Oh, and online, the arguments and name-calling continue, as many South Africans grow increasingly gatvol with the restrictions imposed upon their daily lives.

The tide also seems to have turned with regards President Ramaphosa’s handling of things, and his endearing mask gaffe seems like a long, long time ago.

The latest warning about the effects of a continued lockdown comes via a detailed report sent to Ramaphosa by a specialist panel headed by actuaries and covered by the Daily Maverick.

There is no messing about in this report:

If South Africa’s present economically restrictive lockdown measures are not discontinued immediately, they may cause 29 times more deaths than the measures aim to prevent. And each week of continuing lockdown will, in the long run, cause more loss of life than the virus itself.

That is the stark message in a report delivered to President Cyril Ramaphosa by Pandemic Data and Analytics (Panda), a multidisciplinary initiative… [which] describes itself as a concerned group of professionals and comprises actuaries, an economist, lawyers, a medical doctor, a data specialist and a statistics lecturer.

The frequently voiced government mantra that lives are being prioritised and that the issue is “lives versus the economy” is described in the Panda report as a false dichotomy. The report notes: “Viruses kill. But the economy sustains lives, and poverty kills too.”

It points out that the admitted intention of the lockdown is to “flatten the curve”, to spread expected virus deaths over time, so as not to overburden hospital systems. This “saves lives to the extent that avoidable deaths are prevented, but merely shifts the timing of the rest by some weeks”.

A letter was delivered to Ramaphosa (not an open letter, we’ve had enough of those), along with the report, asking for an opportunity to show why Panda’s research points towards a different approach to the one our government is currently taking.

Actuary Nick Hudson, chief executive of private equity firm, SANA Partners, who co-ordinated Panda (their acronym, for better or worse), says “consequences of the continued lockdown should be measured against the economic costs and second order impact”:

This impact, the report notes, is on reduced life expectancy or years of life lost. Malnourished, desperately poor people die much earlier than those in higher income brackets. And those who lose jobs, income and status tend in greater numbers to suffer depression, commit suicide and abuse drugs as a consequence. According to Panda, estimates of total years of life lost in South Africa as a result of lockdown could run into millions of years…

The issues raised by Panda have now been thrown open to debate. And, if the analysis contained in the 24-page report is not refuted, and it is held that “the economic impact on life-years of a full lockdown would be much larger than that of the virus”, the group maintains that a change of direction would be essential.

Panda advises “a smarter form of lockdown, incorporating measures to protect the very old and very sick” along with “mild restrictions on economic activities and ban on large gatherings.”  Children, the report argues, should stay at school

I’m sure many would argue that the members of Panda have a vested interest in seeing the economy opened, but that’s a story in and of itself.

For key decision-makers like Ramaphosa and other ministers, the pressure to ease certain restrictions has ramped up significantly over the past few days.

There really is no win-win outcome in our current situation, and whatever decisions are made will have life and death ramifications for millions across the country.

Perhaps we are overdue an address from President Ramaphosa, to clarify a few issues and plot the way forward, so that there is further transparency to the entire process.

[source:dailymaverick]