We are entering the home stretch of our national lockdown, friends.

Before popping bottles (which you probably don’t have because your booze has all but run dry), just remember that Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, said last week that “we don’t know for sure that the lockdown will end on April 30. Even if it opens on April 30 we can’t open the floodgates.”

Life will not return to normal from May 1, and we have a long and bumpy road ahead of us.

One thing we can bank on happening as we are allowed to leave our homes, and businesses around the country turn the lights back on, is load shedding.

The Sunday Times reported yesterday:

SA is hurtling towards new power cuts, due to hit the country in May.

This is despite Eskom conducting maintenance on its ageing power stations during a decline in demand in the lockdown.

Energy analysts said that while the current decline in demand greatly helped Eskom, it had allowed for only low-level and routine repairs.

Lockdowns in countries that make boilers, turbines and controls systems – essential for power plants – mean Eskom has battled to secure vital components especially for its Medupi and Kusile power plants. Bottlenecks at ports have added to the delays.

The global lockdowns have also prevented Eskom from bringing in specialised engineers to work on the equipment.

Eskom’s power generation head, Bheki Nxumalo, told the Sunday Times that power cuts were “most likely to resume not long after the national lockdown is lifted during May” and continue until August 2021.

Sadly, we have known load shedding is going to be a reality for many, many years, with energy expert Ted Blom saying we’re looking at five years as a best-case scenario.

Still, it seemed realistic to hope that the lockdown would have allowed Eskom to gain some serious ground, but I guess that was asking too much.

Fancy a quite staggering statistic? Energy analysts say that every hour of load shedding costs our economy between R50 million and R100 million.

Here’s Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha :

“It’s not the deep-cycle maintenance that needs to take place. The maintenance needed is the kind where massive boiler and turbine components are replaced, especially at Kusile and Medupi power stations.

“That cannot happen because the borders are shut and supplies and specialists, who are behind the design and manufacturing of these parts, cannot be brought into the country.”

He said that “in reality there are power stations which are badly damaged and will need deep repair interventions and will not suddenly be able to meet demand”.

“The major [obstacle] to fully generate power lies with the new power stations which were built.”

That so-called “deep-cycle maintenance” is due to resume once lockdown ends, with Nxumalo stating “contracts and ordering and importing” of vital components, as well as sourcing people with the required skills, is currently underway.

Widespread load shedding, just as businesses try and find their feet after being shuttered for more than a month, is sure to have serious repercussions:

“Load-shedding will exacerbate the country’s already precarious economic situation,” [University of Johannesburg energy economist Professor Johane Dikgang] said.

“Businesses have already been wiped out. This will be the kiss of death for those who have barely managed to survive the lockdown.”

Again, Eskom’s dire state isn’t exactly breaking news, and there is no quick, overnight fix to what has been decades of criminal neglect.

It just stings to know that the power utility hasn’t been able to make more progress during this lockdown, and businesses that are already on life support are due for further immediate strife as a result.

[source:sundaytimes]