If you’re in the camp that thinks that climate change is a government conspiracy, maybe some real-world examples will bring you over to the side of logic.

Back in June, a former Australian defence chief and senior royal navy commander endorsed a terrifying scenario analysis of how human civilisation might fall apart in the next 30 years.

Apparently, the wheels are coming off around the year 2050.

If you’ve been paying attention, you might have noticed some of the signs that we’re well on our way to meeting that deadline.

Sea levels are also on the rise and, according to GroundUp, causing damage to public and private coastal property in Cape Town.

The coast at Milnerton particularly is being affected by erosion, with the public beach under City of Cape Town jurisdiction already having been washed away by erosion and storm surges.

The City is currently assessing options which include retreat for a section of the coast in Milnerton, says Mayco Member for Spatial Planning and Environment, Marian Nieuwoudt.

Apart from Milnerton, other areas affected include Glencairn, Hout Bay, and Sea Point.

Sea level rise, and resultant increased damage from storm surges, is a global phenomenon. “A specific concern to the City is that public and private infrastructure will become increasingly at risk to coastal processes such as erosion, and beaches as public recreational spaces are likely to become increasingly at risk in developed areas of the metro in the long-term”.

As weather patterns change due to global warming, ocean swell direction also altered. These slight changes in predominant wave direction could also cause erosion of beaches.

Nieuwoudt says that the only solution may be to retreat and allow nature to create a barrier to the ocean.

Nieuwoudt noted the importance of natural barriers such as dunes and wetlands, many of which have been compromised by development or the canalisation of estuaries. These needed to be restored as much as possible, and the City was seeing some success in the ongoing restoration of the natural sand dunes in Hout Bay, an ongoing project where R6 million had been spent so far.

The Coastal Management Programme (2015), noted that coastal erosion is occurring at “a number of points along the City’s coastline as a direct result” of urban development.

The report gives an example: at the southern end of Table Bay the coast has been eroded by 35 metres over the last 45 years. Climate change is predicted to increase both the intensity and frequency of coastal storms, worsening the erosion problem and creating a long term risk to the city.

Global consensus at the time of the report suggested a mean sea level rise of 0.76m by 2100. Although this may seem small, it will cause “disproportionately large impacts on the damage that storms cause to the coastal zone”.

In 2008, the sea level was estimated to rise at a rate of 2 centimetres every 10 years. Now it’s estimated that the sea level will rise more than a metre in the next 80 years.

Things are changing quickly, but there’s still a small window of opportunity to turn it around – take note of some of the suggestions made in Leo DiCaprio’s latest climate change doccie.

In the meantime, you might not want to take that Sea Point promenade for granted.

[source:groundup]