Ace Magashule isn’t going to stop gunning for President Cyril Ramaphosa, although thus far the ANC’s incumbent leader has managed to stave off the party’s secretary-general.

There’s no doubting that the naming of the ANC parliamentary committee was a win for Magashule, who saw some pro-Zuma party members appointed to key positions, but he was thwarted by Ramaphosa just before he tried a Parliamentary coup.

Whilst it’s easy to pick out the pro-Zuma, and thus pro-Ace, faction, it’s less easy to pick out who stands behind the president. As Ranjeni Munusamy says on TimesLIVE, this is worrying:

Many people refer colloquially to “Cyril’s faction” without knowing who exactly they are talking about…

They should be part of a power bloc in the ANC national executive committee (NEC) who dominate discussions and have formidable influence in provinces.

They should be Ramaphosa’s eyes and ears on the ground, and his wall of defence within the ANC and outside.

As leader of the party, Ramaphosa should be the dominant force with his supporters prevailing from branch to national level.

The reality, however, is that no such power bloc exists…he does not appear to have a solid base, and certainly not a circle of political heavyweights and surrogates who represent him in structures across the country.

Whilst the ANC’s election results show that he is popular with many voters, that won’t help him when it comes to internal party structures.

Looking forward, that means next year’s midterm national general council (NGC) will be one to keep a very close eye on. Whilst Ramaphosa cannot be removed from his position at the NGC (he can only step down voluntarily or become incapacitated), the screws can be tightened by those looking to oust him in the long run:

Ramaphosa’s opponents are seeking to put him under pressure through an evaluation of his performance and implementation of resolutions taken at the last conference.

This has never happened previously, even though one of the biggest failures of the ANC government is implementation of policies and programmes.

But Ramaphosa is easier to target than previous ANC presidents…

Not only is the losing faction still present in the ANC, it has mounted a formidable fight back campaign. Its base is the ANC headquarters.

Through the office of the secretary general, the faction has the ability to influence sentiment and activities in every ANC structure.

Ramaphosa’s strength should be his programme of action in government. But from the agenda he set out in the state of the nation address, it is not clear whether the president will have anything to show in year in terms of tangible progress and results.

In other words, the ANC might actually try and hold itself to account for the first time in history, if only to push out one of the few people trying to steer the party away from outright criminality.

Ramaphosa knows he has the backing of finance minister Tito Mboweni and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan, but both of them are under attack.

Gordhan is fighting the Public Protector, and Mboweni has come under fire for the e-tolls mess, as well as his habit of tweeting complete and utter nonsense.

They’re not exactly well supported within the party, either:

There is no visible support for Mboweni’s mission to stop wanton spending by government or Gordhan’s clean up of state-owned enterprises. He is also on his own in his struggles with public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane.

This is reflective of the weaknesses of Ramaphosa’s “faction” and the failure to join the dots between the onslaught on his key ministers and the coming attack on the president.

In a year, the offensive against Ramaphosa’s chief lieutenants will have mutated into a full-blown assault on the president.

It already is, but I guess these are early warning shots ahead of what could be Ramaphosa’s toughest test yet.

Munusamy finishes by saying that “next winter will be severe and he cannot face it alone”. It sounds rather Game of Thrones-esque, although this time it’s the future of the ANC, and the country, that is at stake.

[source:timeslive]