Are Steve Hofmeyr and his pals still tearing down their DStv dishes and bashing their decoders with hammers?

I dunno, but he’s supposed to give one ‘lucky’ winner R10 000 for following his lead on June 1, so we’ll keep an eye on that for you.

Although most rational humans take a more measured approach to cancelling their contracts, you only need to take one look at the US to see how ‘cable’ companies are suffering.

According to Forbes‘ figures, almost 35 million Yanks have cancelled their cable in the past decade, and they’re now moving to subscription-based services like Netflix and Showmax.

That same article is titled ‘Netflix Has 175 Days Left To Pull Off A Miracle… Or It’s All Over‘, by the way, so it’s not exactly good news for the company.

Take one look at the Netflix share price over the past decade and you may think the man who wrote it, professional fund manager Stephen McBride, is off his rocker:

He’s not the first person to say that Netflix is in trouble, though, and he may well be on to something.

For a start, Netflix spends very, very big:

The company spent $12 billion developing original shows last year. It released 88% more original programming in 2018 than it did the previous year.

And spending on original shows and movies is expected to hit $15 billion this year.

It now invests more in content than any other American TV network.

To fund its new shows, Netflix is borrowing huge sums of debt. It currently owes creditors $10.4 billion, which is 59% more than it owed this time last year.

All that aside, McBride says the company’s woes can be summed up in a single word – Disney. They’re going to charge $6,99/month, which is around $6 cheaper than Netflix for American users, and they’re also going to pull all their content from Netflix:

Disney owns Marvel, Pixar Animations, Star Wars, ESPN, National Geographic, Modern Family, and The Simpsons. Not to mention all the classic characters like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.

In six of the past seven years, Disney has produced the world’s top-selling movie. Picture this…

Disney puts a blockbuster like Avengers Endgame on its platform the same day it opens in theaters.

After a few weeks it’s no longer in theaters. You can’t buy it. You can’t rent it. The only way to watch is to subscribe to Disney’s steaming service, Disney+…

Can you imagine how many parents will sign up for this? I’ll certainly be subscribing for my daughter.

At $6.99/month, what family with kids under 12 years wouldn’t subscribe?

McBride argues that nobody can compete with Disney’s catalogue of content – take Star Wars, for example – and Netflix’s debts are eventually going to catch up with them.

At that point, producing new content at the same rate won’t be financially viable, and Disney will rule the roost.

I just want to watch quality TV that goes straight from one episode to the next without me having to lift a finger, or giving me the excuse to say that’s enough binge-watching for one day.

[source:forbes]