Thankfully, that’s a wrap on the 2019 elections.

There were some winners, and there were some real losers (Hlaudi, that’s you), but in the end, it was all rather predictable.

The ANC secured 57,51% of the national vote, just cracking the 10 million mark, which is actually a 4,65% drop from 2014. It would probably have been far worse had Cyril Ramaphosa not been at the helm, with some party insiders stating that the ANC would have floundered if Jacob Zuma had remained top dog.

Ramaphosa will officially be sworn in as president on May 25, but there really is no time to put his feet up. In a News24 column, editor-in-chief Adriaan Basson points out that the pro-Zuma camp is already regrouping, “to undermine and ultimately unseat” Ramaphosa when the time is right.

Basson identified the three main challenges he faces right now, starting with ‘watch your back and that of your deputy’:

Ramaphosa’s power will immediately be challenged from Luthuli House as the Zuma camp regroups to undermine and ultimately unseat him. It won’t be easy – the ANC performed better at the polls than most anticipated and there is no doubt that Ramaphosa contributed vastly to this electoral victory.

Magashule’s psychological warfare against Ramaphosa, by repeatedly stating that he was not individually important for the ANC to win the election, is aimed at undermining his stature and respect in the party. Magashule is hoping to convince ANC leaders and members that Ramaphosa is replaceable.

The Sunday Independent reported yesterday that Lindiwe Sisulu and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma are both waiting in the wings to take over from David Mabuza as deputy president.

Ace Magashule just won’t go away, and he’s getting hungrier and hungrier for power. When Fikile Mbalula (desperately trying to stay relevant and in the president’s good books) spoke about how the Nasrec decision (to choose Ramaphosa over Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma) had saved the ANC, Ace was quick to hit back.

Look at his face, from the 1:50 mark, when he’s asked about whether Cyril saved the party:

Disgust.

In addition, Ramaphosa has made a commitment to trying to root out corruption within the party, and that’s never going to sit well with Ace and his crooked cronies.

Secondly, ‘cutting Cabinet without spiting your face‘:

Ramaphosa has promised to shrink his Cabinet and it is the right thing to do. South Africa’s executive has 36 members and 35 deputy ministers on top of that. It is obscene and could be cut in half.

He simply has to cut back, but who to cut? Although Ramaphosa’s position in the ANC has been cemented by the electoral victory, he is not untouchable and firing a number of experienced, senior ministers could spell danger for his long-term game.

Another example of the balancing act he is being forced to play, with some bitter ex-ministers sure to throw their support behind the pro-Zuma faction if ousted.

Finally, ‘his relationship with the EFF‘:

Ramaphosa has a charming relationship with EFF leader Julius Malema, but the party is the biggest threat to the ANC’s long-term existence. If it wasn’t for suburban voters in Johannesburg taking their national votes from the DA to the ANC, the governing party may have lost Gauteng due to the large increase in township voters turning to the EFF away from the ANC…

Land and race will be central to the EFF’s continued erosion of ANC support. Ramaphosa will simply have to deal with these matters in a way that stops the bleeding of ANC votes in townships and doesn’t alienate white, coloured and Indian voters who have turned to the ANC in support of Ramaphosa’s “thuma mina” call.

There’s no denying that these election results were a success for the EFF, who is now the official opposition party in three provinces. Expect Juju to be very vocal about these successes in the coming weeks and months.

If you want more on the internal battle that’s playing out in Luthuli House, you should also check out the Daily Maverick’s article, ‘Let the ANC’s post-election games begin‘.

It’s pretty high-stakes stuff, so we’ll all be watching very closely.

[source:news24]