Not anything near breaking news – the ANC will win the national vote.

All the pre-May 8 polls predicted it (although the final figures varied), and as things currently stand, the party has secured around 55% of the national vote with 31% of the stations counted.

That figure is going to fluctuate widely between now and the final result, expected to be announced on Saturday, so keep up to speed with the latest count here.

(According to News24’s statistical model, the ANC’s likely range is between 56% and 59%.)

Whatever you think about the ANC and their (in)ability to run a country, the final percentage is going to be very important for the future of the party.

In particular, for the future of Cyril Ramaphosa, with this below from Moneyweb:

…Ramaphosa needs a decisive win to quell opposition in his faction-riven party to push through reforms needed to spur growth in Africa’s most-industrialised economy. A narrow victory could embolden his critics and may force the party into coalitions to retain control of some provinces, limiting his policy options.

“The margin is extremely important,” said Melanie Verwoerd, an independent analyst and former ANC lawmaker. “It will be significantly more dangerous and difficult for Ramaphosa to deal with his detractors within the ANC should the result fall below 55%. Anything above 57% would make it increasingly difficult for his detractors to act against him.”

Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place. If the ANC doesn’t do well, there’s a better chance of Ramaphosa being ousted from the party structures, with crooks like Ace Magashule and David Mabuza (and a certain Jacob Zuma behind the scenes) becoming more powerful.

If the ANC does secure those votes, then they haven’t been held properly accountable for 25 years of criminal mismanagement, and there’s also a greater chance that they will take hold of key provinces and metros around the country.

From a story back in April on BusinessTech, covering a report by Government Performance Index for 2019, from think-tank Good Governance Africa (GGA) – South Africa’s best and worst-run municipalities and who governs them.

Best on the left, worst on the right:

Enough said.

Just another reason to watch those results closely.

For some insight on how many votes a party needs to secure a seat in the National Assembly (and the R92 250 a month payday), read this.

Let’s just hope you didn’t waste your vote.

[sources:moneyweb&businesstech]