After Pravin Gordhan, his technical task team, and the Eskom top brass’ plan for curbing load shedding was torn apart last week, we knew there was more bad news coming.

In case you missed that one, energy expert Ted Blom felt that Eskom’s plan significantly increased the chances of a ‘total grid meltdown’, which is a sequence of words you don’t really want to read.

Sorry to stick another nail in that coffin on a Monday morning, but Bloomberg hasn’t held back in an article posted yesterday.

The shit and the fan are now very well acquainted:

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., which supplies almost all the nation’s power, will lose more than a quarter of its current generating capacity over the next decade as it shuts aging coal-fired plants. Replacing that output and adding capacity needed to meet rising demand will take years and cost more than 1 trillion rand ($71 billion), according to government estimates. The problem is likely to worsen exponentially after 2030 as more plants reach retirement age.

While Eskom is building two new plants, Medupi and Kusile, they are running years behind schedule and billions of rand over budget, and won’t be enough to plug the supply gap. The utility has limited scope to invest in more projects because it isn’t making enough money to cover its operating costs and service its debt, which had ballooned to 419 billion rand at the end of its last financial year.

Quite something, hey?

Talk of diving Eskom into three units – generation, transmission and distribution – has been met with staunch opposition from powerful labour unions (there’s even been talk of sabotage), so there’s been some backtracking on that front with the national election looming large.

Looking ahead, the country will still be heavily dependent on coal by the time 2030 rolls around:

Thank goodness Zuma’s attempts to push through that nuclear deal failed, but what about the fact that solar power remains such a minor part of our national power plan going forward?

One word – tenders:

Engie SA, which operates the 100-megawatt Kathu concentrated solar power project 600 kilometers (373 miles) southwest of Pretoria and feeds into the grid, is among power companies that are awaiting the finalization of the IRP [the nation’s energy blueprint, the Integrated Resource Plan] and the issuing of new power supply tenders.

“We were surprised that the program of development keeps delaying,” Paulo Almirante, the company’s chief operating officer, said in an interview at the plant. “Sometimes it’s a bit frustrating, the delays, but we are confident that after the elections this will be clarified and that the sector will continue to develop.”

I applaud the optimism, Paulo.

Business owners might want to check out these tips on how to keep things running during load shedding, and there’s also this story about how much it costs to take your home off the grid.

[source:bloomberg]