If ever you wanted proof that the South African political landscape is a mess, look no further than the rise of the EFF.

Hollow promises, racially inflammatory rhetoric, some Grade A hypocrisy and your standard SONA political violence – all in a day’s work.

Despite all of this, the party, led by Julius Malema, has grown in support to become the country’s third largest party, and some polling suggests they are making inroads into the ANC support base.

Nobody seems to be in agreement about the exact support the party garners, but the Daily Maverick is looking at the 10% mark as something of a watershed:

The Institute for Race Relations suggests the EFF could win up to 12% but prediction are not outcomes and it is possible that the EFF could slip below 10%, as some voters may return to the ANC, or decide not to vote at all.

Why should it matter all that much whether the EFF gets above or below 10%? Well, consider how Julius Malema is likely to react to each scenario, and how that will map out his plan for the party going forward, and there could be far-reaching implications.

Let’s check out each scenario:

Should Malema achieve 10% or above of the vote, he will trumpet that his party has grown the most, and that it is a real winner of the 2019 elections. He will use that to suggest that he has political momentum, which would give him the impression of growing political power. With a slightly larger caucus of MPs in Parliament (40 or so vs the current 25), the party could make more noise, ask more questions, and generally continue the strategy of using Parliament to gain public attention.

More important, the growth of that nature would be an indication that the EFF has been able to do something it has appeared unable to do – grow and sustain structures across the country, which is vital for its longer-term strategy…

Rather worryingly, some have suggested that the EFF’s continued growth would put law enforcement agencies under intense pressure, who have yet to press charges against Malema for a number of charges:

…his firing of live ammunition in 2018, the alleged corruption stemming from Limpopo in 2010, the various racially-charged comments he has been making for years, and his involvement in the VBS scandal.

Were he to grow his political power base, any attempt to press ahead with those cases post the election could appear politically motivated. In other words, it could look like the ANC is trying to achieve legally what it could not achieve politically – certainly Malema would claim that.

In short, Malema would more than likely continue to go unpunished and unchecked, which is a rather worrying scenario.

So, what if the EFF doesn’t crack double digits?

First, it could appear to be stuttering, that it has not been able to make much progress at all. Certainly, its opponents would claim it has had all the free publicity in the world, while still unable to actually achieve proper traction. Key to this is political momentum, and if the EFF fails to grow it, they could soon be seen as yesterday’s news.

Second, it’s a matter of confidence. It’s one thing to be a member of Parliament for a party that is on the move, it’s another to find that, in fact, you have not moved forward at all, and that an overwhelming majority of the country has voted against you.

And third, a perceived halt in the EFF’s momentum could create space for the law enforcement agencies to do their work. In other words, the political pressure on them not to prosecute could be removed.

You shouldn’t really need to be reminded that making your voice heard at the voting booth on May 8 is of vital importance, but do you really want an emboldened Julius Malema post-election?

It’s a public holiday, after all, and waiting in line is a good way to cure a hangover.

[source:dailymaverick]