The national elections are around the corner and this time promises to be a little bit different from elections past.

For one thing, the ANC’s stronghold on the majority vote is loosening as the EFF rises in popularity.

Voters are so divided that a majority of political commentators are predicting a coalition government as the outcome.

The 2014 election results were the start of the socio-political shake-up in South Africa, and according to City Press, can provide some insight into what to expect after May 8.

Let’s break it down province by province.

Mpumalanga

In 2014, the Mpumalanga ANC under David Mabuza planned on winning with no less than 90% of the vote.

The ANC won 78.23% in the 2014 general elections, but one legislature seat went to BRA, three to the DA and two to the EFF.

BRA is about to die now after Mabuza lured its then secretary, Cleopas Maunye, back to the ANC.

Another problem has emerged for the ANC – it is called the SA National Congress of Traditional Authorities (Sancota).

Sancota is going strong and could cause some problems for the ANC. Still, the party aims to win the province – although it’s unlikely that they’ll take a 90% majority.

Gauteng

Gauteng is the province long coveted by the opposition. It’s also the province with one of the smallest voter margins between parties.

In 2014 the ANC received 53.5% of the votes compared with the DA’s 30.7% and the EFF’s 10.3%.

With the two opposition parties cumulatively at 41% in the last elections, it is clear that if they pull up their socks this time around, they will give the ANC a run for its money, dislodging it through a coalition.

The DA has even moved their party headquarters to Gauteng in an attempt to connect more with voters. The EFF has shown the strongest growth in Gauteng where it hopes to govern in the municipalities after the elections.

North West

More than 1,1 million people voted in North West in 2014, giving the ANC a 67% majority.

Since then, the ANC has managed to screw themselves over by relying on loyalty rather than focusing on resolving internal divisions.

The EFF believes it’s in a good position to upset the ANC and win absolute majority, however, that remains their best-case scenario.

Its worst-case scenario is to bring the ANC below 50%, which would need other smaller parties like United Christian Democratic Party, United Democratic Movement, Congress of the People and African Christian Democratic Party to up their game – and lead a new coalition government.

North West gave EFF 144 000 votes in 2014.

The DA isn’t as enthusiastic about their chances in the North West, especially because they’re going up against the EFF.

KwaZulu-Natal

KwaZulu-Natal has been ANC territory for the past few elections.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which governed the province in the early days of democracy, lost its opposition status to the DA. In 2014 the IFP came in with 11% of the vote, with the DA walking off with 13%.

Part of the IFP’s decline in the province came from infighting in the party which saw the formation of a breakaway, the National Freedom Party, which secured 7% of the provincial vote in 2014.

In recent months, however, the polls show a resurgence of the IFP. The EFF has also left their mark on the province.

The outcome could be a coalition government. Either way, the ANC vote is predicted to be lower than 65%.

Western Cape

The DA took control of the Western Cape from the ANC in 2009.

Under the leadership of former party leader Helen Zille, the DA became the first party to usurp power from the ANC in 2009 when it garnered 51% of the vote.

In 2014 the DA cemented its place in the province with 59% of the vote.

The ANC, for the most part, appears to have accepted defeat in the Western Cape, failing to offer any real opposition.

But the ANC does appear to have unleashed a secret weapon in the form of president Cyril Ramaphosa, who has been spending a significant time campaigning for the ANC there.

This will be the first election for the DA under the leadership of Mmusi Maimane, with Alan Winde as the party’s Western Cape Premier Candidate, a position previously filled by Helen Zille.

Patricia de Lille left the party and started the Good Party, and remains popular in some parts of the Cape metro.

Limpopo

While the EFF started campaigning early, the ANC seems almost absent.

Despite the threat posed by the EFF, many believe the diagnosis that the ANC is heading for an early grave in the province is far-fetched.

In the general elections in 2014 the ANC obtained 78.60%.

The EFF became the official opposition party garnering 10.74% compared with the DA’s 6.8% of votes. The ANC is likely to retain power, but support for the EFF is expected to grow substantially.

The ANC still retains a fair amount of loyalty in this province.

Northern Cape

A total of 1,2 million people live here and 625 968 voters (79,9%) from 707 voting districts will determine the stake of each political party in the 30-seat provincial legislature.

So this is a big one.

While the ANC garnered an impressive 63.6% in 2014, the DA aims to win Northern Cape.

The EFF banks on the youth vote to bolster a coalition government.

DA premier candidate Andrew Louw said: “We are looking at reducing the ANC’s 64% to just less than 50% so that negotiations on a coalition government can begin.”

The EFF aims to get at least 130 000 votes or seven seats in the legislature.

Eastern Cape

The ANC won the Eastern Cape without much resistance in 2014, with more than 1,5 million votes (70%).

Former provincial chairperson Phumulo Masualle, who led the 2014 campaign, warned in his last address in 2017 that the party was losing support in urban areas, such as the metro.

The DA, which succeeded the ANC in the metro, would like to ride the momentum of 2016, but the unstable coalition government since then might have left a sour taste as service delivery failed and parties played musical chairs in council.

The metro has since landed in the hands of the United Democratic Movement (UDM) with the help of the ANC, African Independent Congress and United Front.

The EFF has two seats in the Eastern Cape legislature, the UDM has four, the DA has 10 and the ANC has 45.

Free State

The ANC currently holds a two-thirds majority in the province.

In the last elections, the ANC enjoyed a 69.88% share while the DA and the EFF received 16.23% and 8.15%, respectively.

Since then, the Free State ANC has been riddled by factionalism and infighting, leaving it susceptible to diminishing votes.

A major turning point for the province was Magashule relinquishing the premiership at the beginning of last year after he was elected ANC secretary-general.

The latest polls suggest that the ANC might lose 9% and fall to 60%, while the DA and EFF could gain ground to 20% and 14%, respectively.

You can read more about election outcome predictions and party platforms here, here and here.

[source:citypress]