Turns out what you eat really can affect how long you live.

For years Japan has enjoyed top spot in the rankings for longest life expectancy, according to the Global Burden of Disease study.

It will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, but new research shows that it’s eventually set to lose its crown. Using current trends, in 2040, Japan’s average life expectancy will be just under 85,7 years, which is no longer the longest.

Here’s The Guardian with the new forerunner:

People in Spain are predicted to have the longest life expectancy in the world by 2040 – beating Japan into second place – and much of the reason is to do with the way they eat, according to the authors of the most comprehensive study of the global burden of disease.

In the years to come, the biggest threats to our health and longevity will be obesity, high blood pressure and blood sugar, tobacco use and drinking alcohol, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, US, which has produced the forecasts.

The Spanish, who are expected to have an average lifespan of 85,8 years in 2040, do particularly well when it comes to diet. The olive-oil rich Mediterranean diet also has positive effects on virility. 

The data from the study, which is continually updated with research and statistics from every country in the world. For the first time, the team have produced forecasts not only for the most likely life expectancy and health outcomes for 195 countries and territories, but also best and worst case scenarios.

While all countries are expected to achieve a slight increase in life expectancy, the rise will be slower than previous years.

Some rather downbeat health news:

The top 10 causes of death in the UK will be ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, lung cancer, lower respiratory infections, COPD, colon and rectum cancer, stroke, breast cancer, prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer. But there is “great potential to alter the downward trajectory of health” by addressing key risk factors, levels of education and income, the authors say.

The US will fall 20 places, from 43rd to 64th, as other countries surge past. The average lifespan of 78.7 years will rise only slightly to 79.8 years.

The US has been tumbling down the life expectancy league for a while, said Murray, worsened recently by the impact of deaths linked to the opioid crisis. “We really see this slowing down of progress. There is a whole literature about why the US has been progressively underperforming compared to Europe,” he said. There was nothing in the trends to suggest this would change.

The bottom-ranked nation is Lesotho in southern Africa, expected to have a life expectancy of only 57,3 by 2040. The Central African Republic is on 58,4, Zimbabwe on 61,3 and Somalia on 63,6.

The IHME team are warning that a resurgence of HIV/Aids could further decrease life expectancy.

[source:guardian]