It was the year 2015.

International Data Corp (IDC) predicted that more Africans would own smartphones than feature phones – you know, like your standard Nokia 3310 vibes – at this stage of the game.

They even threw in some percentages.

An excerpt from a 2015 article to show you just how grave the warning was:

Only 27% of cellphones sold in Africa and the Middle East in 2019 will be feature phones. The vast majority will be smartphones, according to new research from International Data Corp (IDC).

Regional smartphone shipments will total 155m units in 2015 after increasing by 66% year on year during the first quarter, according to the technology research and consulting firm’s Q1 2015 Mobile Phone Tracker report. During the quarter, 47% of cellphones sold during the first quarter in Africa were smartphones. Feature-phone sales on the continent slumped by 20% year on year, according to IDC.

But IDC didn’t take into consideration that perhaps the increase in smartphones would slow down once the market was saturated, or that feature phones serve a purpose when it comes to long battery life and cheap retail prices.

Fast forward to the year 2017 and, well, IDC was clearly wrong. So wrong, in fact, they have released a new set of data that shows the exact opposite: a decline in smartphones being bought on the African continent.

In 2014, as the two sales neared the crossing points, looking at the graph below it’s obvious why they would predict such a case. However, the two markets instead acted like opposing magnets, as the sales of feature phones began to rise and the sales of smartphones declined:

According to Quartz, the reason for this was the recent mild decline in economies in some African countries:

The slowdown in smartphone shipments was down to economic headwinds in some of the continent’s leading markets. Nigeria, Africa’s largest market, had a “particularly tough year”. Nigeria had its first recession in two decades and the naira devaluation has weakened purchasing power of locals and hurt imports.

There was a slowdown across the board in smartphone shipments to Africa and the overall mobile phone market share of feature phones increase for the first time in six years, growing from 53% in 2015 to 56% in 2016.

In total, mobile phone shipments to Africa grew by 10.1% last year to reach a notable milestone by passing the 200 million mark for the first time.

So which makes and models are the most popular?

Well, although Samsung remains on top, Chinese mobile phones have also made their mark: Infinix, Tecno and itel “outperformed its main competitors” in terms of feature phone shipments in 2016.

IDC used this data to provided another prediction of the African market:

Price competitiveness has become a key issue in many African markets. To grow significantly in these markets, vendors have to be able to address the continent’s large low-income population by providing phones that are priced very competitively.

The conclusion? Africa’s markets are volatile when it comes to predictions. For all we know, a massive brand could be creating the cheapest smartphone ever, which will turn the market upside down. Again.

In the meantime, just know that if you’re creating an app for smartphones, you might want to look at how to integrate it into feature phones, too.

This is Africa, after all.

[source:theatlas&qz]