Julius Malema is many things to many people, but when he spoke to Al Jazeera and said ‘we will remove this government through the barrel of a gun‘ he grabbed the attention of an international audience.

Then there was the EFF party’s Manifesto Launch over the weekend, where he was once again in fine voice (sauciest quotes HERE).

The BBC are even taking notice now, especially after Julius said that South Africa’s soldiers were among his supporters:

Sandu (The South African National Defence Union) accused both the President and parliament of having “constitutional dirt on their hands”. They appeared to speak for many South Africans.

That sense of frustration also bubbled over in 2009 when more than 1,000 disgruntled soldiers went on the rampage in the administrative capital Pretoria, to protest against poor pay and conditions. But tear gas and rubber bullets quickly quelled their “rebellion” and no-one for one moment thought it was the start of a coup.

Some in the armed forces clearly align themselves with many ordinary South Africans concerned about the integrity of their president.

But Jakkie Cilliers from the Institute of Security Studies – himself a former South African soldier – believes it is unlikely that Malema “can a tap into a deep vein of running discontent” even though the military is “underfunded and overstretched”…

Central to today’s South African military is the lack of a core political identity. And central to the South African state is the fact that it is a constitutional democracy and soldiers are given space to express their views, just like any other South African.

Unlike other countries where South African troops have been deployed as peacekeepers, including Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the South Africa military is credited with a sense of professionalism. That has meant it has kept out of politics.

So it looks like mobilising the soldiers themselves may be a stretch too far, but what about winning over the Generals who ultimately make the big calls?

The top brass of the armed forces are largely made up of those loyal to the governing party.

And despite problems of resources, Cilliers argues that it is unlikely to be enough to provide political ammunition for Malema.

He said: “I think there is no possibility of senor military aligning themselves with anyone other than the ruling party. The values of constitutionalism are taught and understood at every level of the military, so we are unlikely to see anything like insubordination, let alone an attempted coup.”

Nope, just ‘yes men’ like all the other cronies JZ has surrounded himself with. This isn’t his first rodeo either:

President Zuma, as a former head of intelligence for the ANC and a member of MK, knows a thing or two about insurgency.

He also knows that the best counter-insurgency strategy is to win the propaganda war, erode your opponents’ support base and offer a legitimate alternative that keeps your supporters onside.

Julius Malema may picture himself as a revolutionary making waves in the run-up to municipal elections – but he relies on questions over President Zuma’s legitimacy to breath oxygen into his campaign.

Until that is addressed, some would argue, Malema will draw a crowd.

It’s a dog eat dog world out there, and it looks like (for now at least) Julius’ bark is worse than his bite.

Maybe start with that water gun…

[source:bbc]

[imagesource:reuters]