There are few political journalists as respected in this country as Max du Preez, unless you ask the folks at the Independent Media Group of course.

Because of that respect when he starts to ponder who will one day take over the reins of the ANC from Jacob Zuma we tend to take notice. Not that Zuma will go quietly I am sure, but 2017 could be an interesting year for the current President with the ANC Elective Conference taking place.

Although noises coming from Luthuli House predictably sing the praises of Zuma, denying that there is in fact a race for the party leadership, du Preez believes we might be in for a surprise. Below are some extracts from his News24 column:

Zuma’s successor should be a woman, the ANC Woman’s League declared at its national conference. Read: deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa should not be South Africa’s next president.

Zuma’s ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is clearly the woman the league has in mind…There is little doubt that Dlamini-Zuma is her ex-husband’s choice to succeed him. This could give her a major advantage…

Dlamini-Zuma has another advantage: she is Zulu-speaking. Again, I don’t like references to politicians’ ethnicity, but in this case it really is relevant.

Here’s the stark reality. In the general election of 1994 the ANC received 31.6% of the vote in Kwazulu-Natal. This increased to 65.3% in 2014 and today it is the single strongest block of support for the party. In all the other regions the ANC’s support had dwindled.

Although it would appear that handing over the top dog role to another Zuma reeks of nepotism du Preez does offer some praise to Dlamini-Zuma:

She is a formidable politician in her own right. Where she’s perhaps short on charisma, she makes up with a strong intellect, a talent for strategic thinking and a famous work ethic…

She made many mistakes as minister of Health in Nelson Mandela’s Cabinet, but fared a lot better as minister of Foreign Affairs and really made her mark at Home Affairs after that. She became the African Union commission chairperson in 2012.

So who else might be in the running then? Enter Cyril Ramaphosa, the name on the lips of many who view Jacob’s position as in danger:

In my view Ramaphosa towers head and shoulders above other members of Cabinet and indeed the ANC’s senior leadership. Put differently: he looks like the most presidential leader in the party…

My suspicion is that a campaign of gossip and dirty tricks would be launched against Ramaphosa when the time comes. Remember, the entire intelligence capacity of the state and much of the media are available to the Zuma camp.

So what if Cyril falls victim to the gossip campaign and decides he can’t handle the heat? A third alternative then:

If there’s going to be a serious contest between Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa, the candidacy of a third contender to the throne, and one who had kept his nose clean so far, could become much stronger: ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize.

Max reckons the safety of JZ in that 2017 election depends on what happens with the ‘more than 700 criminal charges hanging over his head’, as well as results of next year’s local elections.

Out with one Zuma and in with another, Cyril taking over amidst his involvement with the Marikana tragedy, the clean-nosed Zweli Mkhize – what’s your best case scenario then?

[source:news24]