Elections are fast approaching, and those among us who have dodged democratic apathy will soon be queuing outside toll booths across South Africa, in an attempt to make our country better. The lead up to the elections will, as ever be characterised by rampant speculation. But one man known more for sharp analysis than guesswork predicts that the ANC will win by a landslide of 61%.

Lets first take note of what happened last time we had a general election: In 2009, the ANC claimed 65,4% of the national vote. The DA got 16,66%, Cope got 7,4%, and the IFP got 4,5%. That’s pretty much what we would call a “massive” victory. This time we have something interesting happening. Instead of voting for Zuma as the replacement for Mbeki, ANC followers will be voting for Zuma the man himself – the man who many have witnessed embroiled in some pretty distasteful activities.

But that wont deter the ANC, says Grootes, who quite rightly claims that the number of actual voters has declined steadily since 1994, most of which are non-ANC voters. This is due mostly to the near-certain fact of an ANC win every time, and the dismal array of viable alternatives.

But most importantly, Grootes says, the ANC will win because it is the ANC:

For many, many people, it is not so much a political party, as it is a part of their identity. It is about a sense of worth, life’s mission, of being part a greater community. For years, they lived their freedom through voting for the ANC. That cannot be written off easily.

Another deciding factor is the ANC’s countrywide penetration. Almost every town has an ANC branch. Moreover, the ANC has so much personnel – enough personnel to pull off a big-time professional campaign.

To read more of the analysis by Stephen Grootes, head over here.

[Source : The Daily Maverick]