As Oscar Pistorius continues to dominate popular conversation, the discussion has shifted from what really might have occurred that night, to what will happen during the trial. He still intended to kill someone – anyone behind that door. This is where the plea bargain comes into it..

The New Yorker covers this topic very nicely. Check this out:

Last week was a dramatic one in the case of Oscar Pistorius, the South African Olympic star who was charged with the premeditated murder of his girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp. But it will probably be the last major courtroom showdown in the case. The Pistorius matter cries out for a plea bargain, and the legal story will probably end that way.

To a greater extent than either side may want to acknowledge, the facts of the case are largely undisputed. On the night of February 13-14, Pistorius and Steenkamp were in Pistorius’s bedroom, in Pretoria, South Africa. There was a disturbance. Pistorius fired his gun four times into the locked door of his bathroom, hitting Steenkamp three times and killing her. The key point of disagreement involves Pistorius’s state of mind. The prosecution argues that the shooting marked the culmination of an episode of domestic violence. Pistorius, in an affidavit filed with the court, asserts that he did not intend to harm Steenkamp at all. Pistorius says that he thought an intruder had entered the bathroom and he shot through the door in self-defense. According to the defendant, Steenkamp’s death was a tragic accident. After a four-day hearing last week, Pistorius was released on a bail of a million rand, or about a hundred and thirteen thousand dollars.

Like the United States, South Africa has a vigorous culture of plea bargaining. The reasons underlying the policy are more or less the same in both countries: plea bargains save time for the judicial system and offer both sides a greater measure of certainty than do trials. Even high-profile cases in South Africa are sometimes resolved by plea bargain. In 2005, Mark Thatcher, the son of the former British Prime Minister, accepted a fine of about five hundred thousand dollars and a four-year suspended sentence in connection with his role in a bizarre plot involving a coup d’etat in Equatorial Guinea.

The Pistorius case will probably end the same way. For him, of course, the stakes are enormous. In South Africa, premeditated murder carries a life sentence, which in practice turns out usually to be twenty-five years. The alternative charge in the case is called “culpable homicide,” which is based on the idea of negligence rather than intentional killing. Culpable homicide does not carry a minimum sentence, and is thus clearly amenable as a focus for plea negotiations.

Pistorius’s motive for wanting bargain is obvious: he could potentially turn a very long sentence into a short one, though he would give up the option of getting off completely.

But why would the government want to make a deal? Well, because Pistorius has a defensible case. Home invasions are epidemic in South Africa. A fact finder might credit Pistorius’s intense fear (and thus his overreaction) to the threat of an intruder in his bathroom. It is true, too, that domestic violence rarely results in convictions in South Africa. (Charlayne Hunter-Gault has essential background on that aspect of the case.) The prosecution may also have a hard time proving motive. Pistorius and Steenkamp were a relatively new couple. There were no reports of public tension, much less murderous violence, between them. It is true that domestic violence happens in many relationships, old and new, but the prosecution would certainly want evidence of something that preceded Pistorius’s actions. A plea bargain would obviate the need for the government to fill this hole in its case. The bail ruling also increases Pistorius’s leverage for a good plea deal. Since he is not in prison, he will be in no hurry to go to trial; his lawyers can spend time chipping away at the government’s case, hiring experts, demanding more information, and generally working to render the events of that night a little more muddy.

[more here]

All will be revealed..