According to a policy brief published by the SA Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR), the ANC’s power is in decline and the demise of the party is now “inevitable”. The observations are based on evidence that “points overwhelmingly in [that] direction.” Click through for the full scoop.

Frans Cronje, deputy CEO of SAIRR, made the alarming claim in a recent policy brief and commented that,

“We do not make this forecast recklessly but rather because the evidence points overwhelmingly in this direction.”

He continues, saying that much of the data used to draw national statistics is inaccurate and does not take into account several crucial factors, chief among them the number of people who simply do not vote.

“It is true the ANC won 63 percent of the national vote in 1994 and increased that to 65.9 percent in 2009. However, this figure is misleading as it ignores the growing number of people who are choosing not to vote at all.

“While more than five out of 10 South Africans turned out to vote for the ANC in 1994, that figure (fell) to less than four out of 10 in the 2009 election. In a sense the ANC, for all its pretension as the ‘will of the people’, is now a minority government.”

The brief goes on to say that the drop in support stems from a loss of confidence in the party and police data indicates that law enforcement are responding to as many as three service delivery protests per day. However, lack of service delivery is not what is driving the decline in support, rather it’s widespread corruption within the party and the utter failure of the public schooling system.

“Only one out of every two black South Africans who enter Grade 1 will ever reach matric and only one out of 10 will pass maths. Hence black South Africans… have limited means to increase their own living standards outside of what the state, and by extension, the ANC can give them…”

Furthermore, putting candidates convicted of fraud and corruption did little to bolster support.

“What this shows is that the ANC is not serious about addressing the failed education, low growth, unemployment, and corruption… If it is not addressing the reasons for its decline, it follows that the party must be in terminal decline.”

Although support is undoubtedly dropping, it may still be a while before it dips below 50% and opens the door for a successor, “we think 2014 is too early, 2019 is plausible but uncertain, and 2024 is probable…”

Political analysts, Professor Susan Booysen and Dr Somadoda Fikeni have weighed in on the issue, both doubting the claims. Booysen said that the brief “is way out of touch with reality. It disregards the fact that many people who abstained from voting in recent elections, have also shown a vote of no-confidence in the DA. There is zero guarantee that their votes will convert to opposition support”. Fikeni did not slam the claims directly but rather drew attention to the point that the assertions were based on the assumption that the oppositions growth would follow a linear path and that as parties expand there will be “similar internal tensions to those in the ANC.”

Where do you see the ANC going in the future?

[Source: IOL]