In the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure and carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that we are likely to build so many new fossil-fueled power stations in the next five years that it won’t be possible to hold global warming at safe levels.

This is in large part due to the “lock-in” effect, which dictates that any carbon-emitting plant or factory built now will be producing carbon for decades. Said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA:

The door is closing. I am very worried – if we don’t change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever.

The generally accepted threshold for global warming is about 2C – beyond which things begin to get a little apocalyptic. According to the IEA’s analysis, published Wednesday, we’re currently producing about 80% of the carbon required to push us beyond that 2C threshold, and we look to hit 90% by 2015.

By 2017, going at present rate, we’ll have maxed out, at least by the IEA’s calculations.

There’s an element of political timing here, obviously – the UN are doing their climate change talks in Durban a little later this month, where there are hopes of putting together a comprehensive carbon-cutting system, again – but that doesn’t render the IEA’s results any less sobering.

[Source: SiliconRepublic]