The Ashes is here and with it comes a string of 1am wake-up-calls accompanied by four or five cups of coffee. It’s pretty rare that something can pry me from my slumber at such ungodly hours of the morning, but the 133-year-old rivalry in cricket is certainly one of the few. I won’t have to endure hours of Pommie Mbangwa’s commentary either, so I should be okay.

England head into this Ashes series down under with their confidence as high as it has ever been. The last time Australia lost the Ashes at home was in 1986-87 and Ricky Ponting was just a preteen observer. No pressure Punter. Stuart Broad’s father was also playing in that series (except he wasn’t such a prat).

The build-up to this series has been quite magnificent, with the British press talking up their team’s chances and the Australian press lambasting their players for a dismal recent run, which sees them head into tomorrow’s first test on the back of a series loss in India. The Aussies are vulnerable and it’s certainly England’s best chance in years of winning the Ashes in Australia. Remember that as the holders, the English only need to draw the series to retain the urn.

I must say that with all the class the Australians once boasted in the likes of the Waugh brothers, Shane Warne (who can be heard commentating with the Sky Sports team), Glenn McGrath, Justin Langer, Matt Hayden and Adam Gilchrist, it’s no wonder they dominated test and ODI cricket during the 90s and early 2000s. This side was so talented that they could probably have achieved all their success without a ruddy coach.

Take into account now the fact that these players have been replaced by Shane Watson, Brad Haddin, Marcus North, Ben Hilfenhaus, Peter Siddle and debutant Xavier Doherty and the side doesn’t have quite the same fear factor. England have an incredibly settled and balanced team led by Andrew Strauss with Alastair Cook, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and James Anderson all experienced and talented players.

Graeme Swann, top wicket taker – 5/2

Graeme Swann tweeted a few weeks ago that he had “just eaten a doughnut and that it was the healthiest thing [I have] eaten all week”. I must say this guy has heaps of charisma and will never capitulate under the pressure of Aussie sledging. He’ll embrace it and it will spur him on. His record in his first Ashes series last year was very respectable. Five Tests, 14 wickets at 40.50. Best: 4-38. He has the x-factor that England has never boasted (simply put, their side has been dull) and he will mount heaps of pressure on the Australians during the middle overs of a day’s play. The Australian wickets are conducive to spinners (just look at Warne’s success) and I feel this is where the English have a distinct advantage. The Aussies don’t have a settled spinner, with Nathan Haurtiz yet to propel his team to any great heights. His tweets will certainly add a similar dimension to the series that Ian Poulter brought to the Ryder Cup.

The Australians’ biggest wildcard is without question Mitchell Johnson, a player that is so awful on tour, but can swing the Kookaburra ball with lethal effect. At home he is a totally different unit and will generate plenty of pace and bounce on the hard Australian wickets. If he fires then Australia’s chances of winning will treble.

Ian Bell, top runs scorer – 9/1

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Sir Ian Botham feels the same way about Ian Bell’s prospects for the series as I do. When England won at home in 2005 Bell endured a torrid series with the bat and was extremely unsettled by the hardened and quick-witted Aussies. Since then he has become one of the best technicians in world cricket who strikes a cover drive with the same panache as Jacques Kallis. He is a rock in the middle order for the English and will be crucial, particularly if KP’s barren spell continues. At 9s he is a great shout for top run scorer in the series.

On the Australian side Michael Hussey and Michael Clarke are two guys with bags of talent who have had very little to show for it in the last 18 months. If you win the toss in Australia you bat first and where 300s and 400s will suffice on England’s pitches, 500s are what you’re looking for in Australia. These two are capable (in the same way their skipper is) of dismantling any bowling attack and at home they could thrive in the conditions.

England win the series 2-1 – 17/2

England will feel a great deal of pressure to win this series. Nobody has talked up the Australian’s chance of success and I think it will end up being a lot closer than people think. The English will win by a test match, simply because their side has more experience, more of the moxie that the Aussies once boasted, a shrewd coach in Andy Flower who is as innovative in his leadership as he was when batting for Zimbabwe and a captain in Strauss who knows his role and the strengths and weaknesses of his team. I feel he has more belief in his side and this gives him the edge over Ponting. It will be England to win the Ashes in Australia for the first time in 24 years, but not by much.

[Sky Sports – Botham verdict] [Sky Sports – Mark Waugh verdict] [Cricinfo]

Image via bhatt.id.au